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The signing of the agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia on the 10 Mar 23 after seven years of severed relations was welcomed by many, thanks to the intervention of China and assistance of Oman and Iraq. The future could be bright should Iran play its part in the agreement. This will be not the end of the problems in the Middle East. Iran in the past has boasted that it is the greatest supporter and provider of security for the Region. Several questions have evolved. Firstly, is the Iran-Saudi deal a way of Iran disengaging in Yemen without losing face? Due to sanctions imposed on Iran the money that it spent on ‘supporting’ the Yemeni Houthi’s has not achieved anything whereas the finances could be channelled to fund Iran’s other proxies. At the moment Iran has agreed to stop arming the Houthi’s. The signs are according to the Iranian Tasnimne news that Iran supports efforts for a peace plan. Although this has been said before only for the U.S., Saudi or the British Navy to stop a Dhow with smuggled weapons heading for Yemen. The possibility of a treaty between the factions in Yemen will be dependent on support. A member of the Houthis’ political wing Abdulwahab al-Mahbashi said on the 12 Mar 23 that the agreement has “nothing to do with them as they are not ‘subordinate’ to Tehran.” The Saudi's may have security on its side but will Iran still have the influence? Secondly, there is still Tehran’s influence, support and arming of the Palestinian enclaves, Syria and Hezbollah. Security in the region is a lot more complicated than just the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia agreeing to respect one another and exchanging ambassadors. Thirdly, the agreement does not include the Iranian 'peaceful' nuclear program which is enriching uranium at a level well above the requirement for a passive program. In order to pursue Iranian ideology of dominance it needs to make sacrifices to achieve its long game. Tehran may believe that when the British left the Region in the 1960’s and security in the Middle East was assigned to Riyadh and Tehran that they will again restart that security process. But the agreement was with Iran and Saudi Arabia, not the Islamic Republic of Iran, different ideologies. Iran is already starting to boast that it has a security deal with Iraq, is about to swap ambassadors with Bahrain who also ceased relations with Iran in 2016 and that the building of bridges with the UAE. In the long run this may be an attempt by Iran to divide the nations and support them by attempting to place a wedge between Arabian countries, the United States and Israel’s Abraham Accord. China played a significant role in assisting with the détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The final question; if it fails where would that leave China and the Islamic Republic of Iran?
The recent UAV attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s military facility at Isfahan on the 28 Jan 23 is giving the Iranians a chance to mock whoever conducted the attack. Several American news outlets have cited Israel for the operation but as usual the Israelis have not, nor are they likely to, comment on the incident. The Iranian Tehran Times wrote that the episode was another “unsuccessful attack” and that Israel had “failed to achieve its goals.” They quoted an unnamed Israel media source that allegedly stated, “Israeli media portrayed the attack as successful, something that stands in stark contrast to the reality on the ground.” The Islamic State claim that the attack allegedly caused minor damage, but this statement has not been verified by any outside source. The news outlet went on to say that the Americans were involved even though the United States distanced itself from the incident. The Iranians included them when describing “Israel’s failed adventure.” However, was the attack a failed venture? If Israel did carry out the latest drone attack on Israfan then this was a clever warning to Iran. To coordinate and fly three UAVs from Israel to the near centre of Iran is an exceptional achievement and sends a message to the Iranians. If it was Israel then not only can they fly their drones across the possible airspaces of Jordon, Saudi Arabia and Iraq undetected, the drones were also flown across the Arabian Gulf into Iranian airspace and onto their target. Iranian propaganda outlets state that at least one drone was destroyed in the attack, meaning two others got through and made it to the target before being terminated. A distance of approximately 1,586 Km or 986 miles with a flight time for a commercial aircraft of 2 hours and 22 minutes. Quite an achievement when you consider the distance and weather conditions that the drones flew. This should be quite a shock to the Iranians who boast of having the best drone service in the world. The alleged Israeli operation says a great deal about the Iranian anti-aircraft defence systems which should have detected the UAV presence as soon as the drones neared the airspace of Iran. This could have been another goal, to test the Iranian air radar. Iranian media would have you believe that Israel failed in its goals whatever they were. The question is, did they?
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"The Europeans think that the Iranian people and the IRGC’s efforts to protect their values is a form of terrorism," (Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Hossein Salami) Iran in a Flat Spin over EU Proposal to Place IRGC on European Terrorist List The French Foreign Ministry said in a statement on the 10 Jan 23 that it had not ruled out terming the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organisation after the Germany Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock tweeted on the 9 Jan 23 that “listing the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization is politically important and makes sense.” Prior to these German and French thoughts, the British government had announced in the early days of 2023 that they were officially going to declare the IRGC a “terrorist group.” At the time the Iranian press-propaganda outlets were more concerned with the anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani who was killed at Baghdad International airport on the 3 Jan 20 than this thought. Security Between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Europe Because of the geographical proximity of Europe and the Islamic Republic of Iran relations between the two have been reasonable over the years. A number of European countries have had a good relationship with the Islamic Republic (formerly Persia) for centuries. The European perspective was greatly enhanced before, during and after the implementation of the JCPOA agreement in 2016. President Trumps withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 and the reimplemented sanctions caused problems for Iran. Iran attempted to split Europe and the United States in order to stop sanctions from being reimposed. Iran’s attempt failed and the United States and Europe sided with one another. The security concerns of the United States, the Middle East and Europe vary considerably due to their global and geographical location along with the threat against each region. The greatest direct threat from Iran is in the Middle East, second is to the United States and its interests in the Region and lastly against Europe. Iran over the years has attempted to create and focus on dialogue with Europe in an attempt to bring the two closer together. The Islamic Republic of Iran Army According to Article 143 of the Iranian Constitution, the task of the Iranian Army is to safeguard the independence and territorial integrity of the country, as well as the order of the Islamic Republic. The army is made up of mainly conscripts but remains loyal to the regime. The ‘Iranian Army remains a main element of Iran’s defence posture’. The army’s leadership claims it has restructured its fighting capabilities and resources in order to fight in conventional as well as asymmetric theatres, the army continues to play an important role in securing borders as well confronting what the regime considers to be a Kurdish insurgency emanating from Iraq as well as a homegrown terrorist threat in the region of Sistan va Baluchistan. The regular army remains Iran’s first line of defence and continues to underwrite the country’s national security, checking both threats from within and outside of the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has its origins as an ideological militia but now takes a greater role in nearly all aspects of Iranian politics and society. The IRGC on the European List 2023 Europe has proposed placing the IRGC on a Foreign Terrorist List (FTL) along with other sanctions. Some sanctions by Europe in the past have targeted individuals from the IRGC but not the entire organisation. When placing an individual or individuals on the sanction list it would be easy for those people to get around the restrictions by having someone else do whatever needed to be done, but an entire organisation is different matter and different to get round. Some countries have argued that by placing the IRGC on a list they are targeting a group that is an integral part of the countries defence capabilities. However, as we have seen the Iranian army is the forefront of Iran’s military capabilities with the IRGC, on paper, playing a second choice. Due to historic and current affairs in Iran the European Union are believing to place the entire organisation on the European Terrorist List. It appears that the two main reasons for discussing and implementing the terrorist classification on the IRGC comes in two main motives. Firstly, the IRGC’s involvement in the heavy-handed crackdown on current demonstrations in the country since the death of the Kurdish female Mahsa Amini (16 Sep 22). This involves the lack of human rights and the execution of demonstrators without a fair trial. Secondly with Iran selling of drones (which it denies), technology and the use of military “advisors” to the illegal war which Russia inflicted on the Ukrainian people. Thus, involving Europe. A recent open source outlet has high-lighted Iran’s involvement in attempting to gain access to the Balkans and join the arms race by proposing the selling of drones to what is becoming an area of unrest. The IRGC is the “main military actor involved in the proliferation of Iran’s indigenous drone program” according to the outlet. The Balkans being on the eastern flank of NATO and Europe. Should the IRGC manage to export drones or military assistance to this area it would cause a huge problem for NATO, America and Europe. Iran has no qualms regarding the selling of its military equipment and has recently attempted to court those countries in the Balkans. Currently some western technology has been found in drones supplied by the IRGC. The problem is being addressed. The Islamic Republic of Iran and its News Outlets/Propaganda Outlets Go into a frenzy The Tehran Times, Tasnimne, Fars News Agency along with many other major outlets have all gone into a flat-spin over the European announcement that the EU is proposing to place the IRGC on the Foreign Terrorist list. Tasnimne accused the European Union of Political weakness and being led by the United States and warned of a “fallout” if Europe was to proceed. The United States placed the IRGC on the Foreign Terrorist List in 2019. The Tehran Times stated that if the European Union was to proceed then it would “shoot itself in the foot” but gave no clear explanation as to how this would happen. In another article by the same outlet the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said that Iran would retaliate. The outcome would blow up years of diplomacy with Iran and set Iran and the West on a path of confrontation, (he did not mention Iran siding with Russia). The outlet also stated that it would put the JCPOA revival in jeopardy. The agreement had been placed on the bottom of a very long list due to Iranian demands. Priorities were now Iranian human rights and supplying of drones to the Russians. Fars news agency warned Europe “to avoid repeating past mistakes.” Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Hossein Salami slammed the European Parliament’s resolution on labelling the IRGC as a foreign terror organization, and further warned the Europeans that they will have to suffer consequences in case of repeating past mistakes. He added that, “The IRGC chief underlined that Europe owes its security to the IRGC, because if it were not for the endeavours made by the IRGC, particularly the IRGC Quds Force and late commander Lt. Gen. Soleimani, the scourge of terrorism created by the US would have engulfed Europeans. "Had it not been for the IRGC’s struggles, the flames of terrorism fuelled by Daesh, an American product, would have spread to Europe and destroyed its security," he underscored. In another statement the IRGC Commander said, "Europe has experienced two world wars but has not learned from its past mistakes and thinks that such resolutions can shake the IRGC." He continued, "The Europeans think that the Iranian people and the IRGC’s efforts to protect their values is a form of terrorism." The Shah declared Iran (Persia) in World War Two as neutral at the beginning of the long conflict. Events later did place Persia/Iran on the side of the axis powers. Iran has also said that it would retaliate against Europe by placing numerous European armies on an Iranian “Terrorist List.” Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf who is himself a former commander of the Guards air force said that Iran “recognize the armies of the European countries... as terrorist groups.” What this would actually achieve is something to wonder about but later in another statement they said that European interests and armies would be shown no differential, meaning European armies would be treated the same as American interests in the Region. Iran announced on the 23 Apr 19 that it had placed the American CENTCOM on a terrorist list. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo on the 9 Apr 19 declared the IRGC and its Quds Force a terrorist organisation. Achieving nothing except attempting to show the people of Iran that it cannot be stepped on without retaliating. Another point to consider is how the IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami believes that the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for European security when it is well known that Iran is the Worlds sponsor of terrorism. The list is endless of the terrorist incidents that the Iranians have been involved in and not just in Europe, the Middle East but globally. In a closed Iranian parliamentary session on the 22 Jan 23 Abolfazl Amouei, the spokesman for the Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee said, “On the other hand, we are looking to establish a mechanism in the country for cases of human rights violations. Actions against international law, including killing and genocide, and cases in which Europeans had a history, should be registered and prosecuted in international authorities. These cases are also foreseen in this plan.” They were going to come up with a three point plan as a response to Europe should they designate the IRGC as a terrorist group. The question to be asked here is, “What is Iran afraid of if the IRGC is placed on the European FTL?” Reasons for not placing Iran’s IRGC on a Terrorist List The reasons are few and the argument is one sided. The Islamic State informs its population and the world that the IRGC has and is fighting terrorism. As there is no definitive universal definition of terrorism each country has its own interpretation. In the Iranian definition its anyone who stands in the way of exporting their revolutionary ideas. These are first and foremost who it deems as terrorist enemies: The United States, the United Kingdom, Israel and Saudi Arabia are the main countries who stand against Iran and are deemed by the theocratic government as terrorists. Iran claims that its IRGC was the only country and organisation to fight and defeat the Islamic State who it opposed. Foreign Affairs Minister of Iran Javad Zarif described ISIL as an "ideological sibling" to Al-Qaeda, adding "the so-called Islamic State, is neither Islamic nor a state." Iran designated the group as a terrorist organisation through IRGC-led news outlets. The Iranians have for some time accused the United States of being responsible for the formation of the Islamic State or Da’esh as it is also known. This is purely a propaganda statement. The Islamic State, Da’esh was condemned for human rights abuses and executions. The United States led the Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) against the Islamic State (Da’esh) and comprised over thirty countries to degrade and destroy the organisation. The Islamic State of Iraq contrary to its statement did not destroy Da’esh alone. Da’esh was a major threat to the Middle East not Europe as Iran depicts. Europe had to assess if the Islamic State represented a direct and imminent threat to the EU, or just a potential risk for the future. Although Europe did not play a prominent role in the eradication of Da’esh it did play a significant role. Iran would do well to look at the reason why the Islamic State was condemned. The Islamic Republic of Iran has hinted it may withdraw itself from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a form of retaliation against the European decision. Iran was one of the original 62 signatories (1968) to the NPT which came into effect 1970, by 2020, 190 countries had signed up to the agreement. During the JCPOA renewal talks Iran has attempted to us the NPT agreement to gain its own way, a form of blackmail. Inspection teams from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had found three undeclared nuclear sites with uranium readings. Iran declared no knowledge of the sites, nor anything about the uranium readings or how they got there. The Islamic Republic blamed Israel for sabotaging the sites amongst other theories. Iran has attempted to bully and intimidate Europe, the United States in gaining concessions with the JCPOA agreement. Now it’s the turn of the European parliament, with Iran threatening to remove themselves from the NPT agreement completely if Europe goes ahead with the IRGC designation. The issue between the IRGC being placed on a Foreign Terrorist List and Iran removing itself from the NPT are separate subjects. Iran is attempting to make them one issue as it has done with threats involving the resurrection of the 2016 JCPOA agreement. The Iranians have accused Europe, the U.S. Germany, France, the U.K. even Israel of plotting against Iran and making the subjects of the three sites and the JCPOA as political issues. They have also accused those involved from Europe, the UK and the U.S. as being “Iranophobic.” A term used by Iran when it cannot get what it wants. There are already problems with monitoring the Iranian ‘peaceful’ nuclear program. Iran removed the safe guards form various sites that were linked to the original JCPOA agreement. Now they are using the Iranian nuclear program as a political football in an attempt to have the Europeans to rescind their plan to place the IRGC on a terrorist list. Wrap-Up The Islamic Republic of Iran’s theocratic leadership has been hurt and is lashing out in every direction it can including accusing Europe of falling into a trap set by the Americans and Israel. Numerous military commanders and political leaders have voiced their opinions along with some wild accusations that are not correct. Iran will, and does, push boundaries. They claim under the constitution that the IRGC is an integral part of the of the constitution saying that “According to the constitution, the IRGC is an official institution of Iran”, and this institution should not be declared a terrorist organization by European countries claimed IRGC chief commander General Hossein Salami. He forgets to mention that the IRGC is also the exporter of terrorism to proxy groups, the assassination of Israeli’s abroad and Iranians living in exile around the world. He forgets to mention that the IRGC is the main actor in the proliferation of drones which Iran attempts to gain markets around the world and lately the Balkans. The EU has at long last taken the rightful decision to state that the IRGC is a terrorist organisation putting its decision in line with the United States. The United Kingdom is also considering declaring the IRGC as a terrorist organisation after the execution of the Iran/British dual national Alireza Akbari. His execution was announced on the 14 Jan 23. In the closed session where Abolfazl Amouei mentions digging up human rights violations, he may want to look at the current president of Iran who is wanted for questioning about the killing of thousands in 1998. President Raisi was referred to in one open source outlet as “Iran’s death committee president.” Iran is and has been suffering financially for some time with inflation above 50%. With more sanctions likely to bring greater problems Iranian money markets responded prematurely and the exchange rate fell. This will likely continue if the announcement of the designation which along with previous sanctions occur and will place a further strain on the Iranian government. Iran had recently announced (16 Jan 23) that it was to give the IRGC a financial monetary allocation of $3 billion in the national budget, representing a 28 percent increase on last year. Iran’s regular army had its budget increased by 36 percent to around $1.22 billion, and the police budget will increase by 44 percent to $1.55 billion. The intelligence ministry has received a 52 percent increase, approximately $500 million, while prison funding has increased by 55 percent, or $230 million. These pay increases show where the Iranian government priorities lie. The motto of the Islamic Republic of Iran should be, “Revolution before the people.” Iran states that the IRGC plays a vital role in the security in the region. Iran is an Asian country who likes to involve itself in Middle Eastern politics. The IRGC create, finances, give logistical assistance, train and guide proxies in the region to cause unrest. President Raisi has praised the IRGC and its fight against terrorism stating that “no other military force in the world has fought terrorism like the IRGC.” Meaning fighting against the Americans, the British the Saudi’s and Israel. Generally, the president is attempting to justify the IRGC to the Iranian population but is a tool of the revolution. The Islamic Republic cannot be seen to be the blame regarding the European action. Tasnimne news outlet stated on the 20 Jan 23 that, “In other words, Europe will officially declare that its forces would be a direct threat to the IRGC; this would indicate a clear meaning in the military and strategic framework. It means that the IRGC will now consider the military forces of these European countries as a threat to nations and geography of the region, just like as Daesh and CENTCOM.” The statement is a threat made against Europe through the Tasnim News Agency which is a semi-official news agency in Iran. It has links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. On the 22 Jan 23 the Islamic Republic of Iran had a closed parliamentary session to discuss the IRGC on the European terrorist list and what their response would be once the announcement was made. It was conducted in order that all members could give their opinions and give a response to which they all agreed. The session was attended by Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and IRGC chief commander General Hossein Salami. President Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi also attended. He opened with, this action is a reaction against the insight and vigilance of the Iranian nation in thwarting the enemy's recent conspiracy and sedition to bring chaos to Iran.” He went on, “Both the military forces and the high political officials of the countries of the region and even the world recognizes the important and decisive role of the IRGC, the Quds Force and General Qassem Soleimani in the fight against terrorism in the region." There are those who would disagree with him. Sanctions Announcement The United States, United Kingdom and Europe 0n the 23 Jan 23 announced a new and fresh set of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Whilst the sanctions represented a reply to the “brutal repression” by the Iranian government ion response to the current demonstrations the Americans placed sanctions targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Cooperative Foundation, an economic conglomerate established by senior Guard officers to manage its investments. The UK imposed sanctions and an asset freeze on Iranian deputy prosecutor general Ahmad Fazelian, who the British foreign office said was responsible for an unfair judicial system that used the death penalty for political purposes, they also blacklisted others. The UK failed to designate the IRGC as a Terrorist Organisation. The EU imposed asset freezes and visa bans on 37 Iranian officials and groups, including the sports minister, Revolutionary Guard commanders in 12 regions of Iran, hard-line politicians, senior state media officials and the head of the so-called “morality police.” The 27-nation bloc failed to nominate the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation. In a video interview with the German politician Hannah Naumaan on the 23 Jan she explained that the EU had not dropped the idea of placing the IRGC on the FTL but was looking at doing so in the future. The politician said, “Some sanctions that come with naming someone as a terrorist organisation are already in place. We are already sanctioning the Revolutionary Guard because of the WMD that they are already developing. We are also individually sanctioning a number of the key players, in the Revolutionary Guard and at the moment we are working on legal pathways and working on political pathways so that we can finally name for what they are a terrorist organisation. But of the concrete sanctions they are already in place.” Meaning this issue has not gone away. The Iranian response was to impose its version of sanctions on the 25 Jan 23. They enforced sanctions on 34 individuals and entities from the European Union and Britain in reaction to similar measures taken against them. Iranian lawmaker, Jalal Rashidi Kouchi, stated, “that Iran’s response to the European Parliament’s resolution on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) caused the EU to back down on the IRGC listing.” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian wrote in the Tehran Times, saying “Branding the IRGC a ‘terrorist organization’ would be a colossal mistake on the part of the EU – a mistake Iran cannot be expected to ignore. Such a designation would encroach upon Iran’s sovereignty, flouting international law and the Charter of the United Nations. Such a serious escalation would further undermine Europe’s trustworthiness in matters related to international security and have profound implications for the interests of European countries in the Middle East region,” he wrote. “Therefore, it is of paramount importance that rationality prevails within the European foreign policy establishment to avert another crisis.” The FM, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, in the Tehran Times on the 20 Jan 23 was quoted as saying that the European parliament had “shot itself in the foot” when hearing about the European decision to place the IRGC on the European terrorist list. With their three-point plan to retaliate in the future against the Europeans the Iranians want to ensure the shoe is not on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s other foot. . Zahra Ershadi, Iran’s Deputy Permanent Representative to the UN (in a report by the Tehran Times on the 19 Nov 22) whilst addressing the UN General Assembly committee on the 17 Nov 22 stated that, “Iran once again has rejected the human rights resolution adopted by the United Nations, saying it was drafted based on “biased behaviour.” She went on to say, “First and foremost, the Islamic Republic of Iran categorically rejects and strongly condemns the draft resolution L-34 on the so-called situation of human rights in Iran in its entirety, which was drafted based on the Special Rapporteur’s flawed report, defective findings, and biased behaviour.” A further statement, “The sponsors of the resolution, who claim to be championing human rights in Iran, have a long record of blatant hypocrisy, double standards, and instrumentalization of human rights for their short-sighted agendas; and none of them are morally fit to preach on Iranians’ human rights, as their actions contradict their words. Looking simply at the resolution’s main sponsors, it appears that the criminal partners have reunited to make another display of sympathy for individuals whose rights they have violated. Such claims are obviously hypocritical, and the sponsors of the resolution were never truly worried about human rights in Iran.” She singled out “those involved include Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, the Israeli regime, and Germany.” Ershadi then went on to point out, “One thing they all have in common is brutality, callousness, arbitrary killing, genocide, and ethnic cleansing.” The Islamic Republic of Iran does like to cast up the past when it is attempting to justify its own actions and took this opportunity to do just that. She pointed to the unmarked mass graves of indigenous people discovered in Canada, the country that seriously pushed for the adoption of the resolution. “In Canada, the discovery of more than 1,300 unmarked graves at four residential schools has shocked the whole international community. You witness the systematic rape, murder, and killing of indigenous children on a large scale. The story with the so-called land of the free does not end here! Having turned into a safe haven for criminals, Canada has consistently refused to uphold its international obligation under the UN Convention Against Corruption to extradite those who’ve perpetrated crimes against the fundamental human rights of the Iranian people with impunity. It is indeed the land of the free, but only for the fugitive criminals!” “Accordingly,” Zahra Ershadi,added, “it has been standard practice for the United States to abuse such valued concepts as human rights to pursue its illegitimate political agenda. The United Kingdom, a so-called human rights champion, has a barbaric policy that caused millions of Iranians to perish during the Great Famine in 1919, and now discriminates against migrants and refugees based exclusively on their ethnicity, colour, and religion, sending those who are not white or of the same ethnic type as Europeans to Rwanda.” This is not the first occasion that Iran has attempted to move the spotlight from themselves and attempt to point it at another country in an effort to deploy the blame elsewhere. Zahra Ershadi commendable quote of, “It’s good to know that Islamic Republic of Iran does like to cast up the past” when it is attempting to justify its own actions and took this opportunity to do just that. It’s a shame it’s all one sided and lacks total truth.
The Persian famine of 1917 – 1919 (Not the Islamic Republic of Iran which had not come into existence at this stage) was a huge disaster of mass starvation and disease under the Qajar dynasty during World War One where Iran was a neutral player but occupied by the British, the Ottomans and the Russians. Whilst Zahra Ershadi likes to point out that the United Kingdom was present, she fails to mention the Ottomans (Turkey (Turkiye), Iran’s neighbour) and their current ally, Russia. Where she points out ethnicity, colour, and religion she again fails to mention that in the Islamic Republic of Iran is made up of Kurds, Baluchis and Azeris. Many of those who are not Persian (Iranian) face discrimination and live-in underdeveloped regions. In the past there have been protests about these conditions only to have their protests put down by the Iranian government using brutal techniques. In May 22 headlines covered a story about Canada’s past when it was revealed that unmarked graves containing the remains of 215 indigenous children had been found in the grounds of a past residential school in southern British Columbia. The school was established in 1890 under the Roman Catholic Church. This was the incident that Ershadi was referring to. In regards to the criminals who seek shelter in Canada she is referring to the Mujahedin-e-Khalq, or MEK. Iran considers those who belong to the group as terrorists and Iran has constantly tried to kill or commit kidnapping of its members. Ottawa 20 Dec 12, the Canadian government in a Public Safety announcement that the “the Mujahedin-e-Khalq (MEK) should be removed” from their terrorist listing in line with the United States and the European Union. Canada lists the Islamic Republic of Iran’s IRGC-Qods Force as a terrorist organisation which was modified on the 25 Jun 21. In Oct 22 the Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau announced that Canada was to implement more sanctions against the Islamic Republic because of the Iranian regime’s “blatant disregard for human rights and human life.” On the 26 Nov 22 Canadian CBC News published an article “Iranian dissidents in Canada say they're being watched and under threat from the regime in Iran.” Iranians living in exile have concerns that members of the Iranian regime are now targeting Iranians residing in Canada. After a couple of weeks with the current demonstrations the Tehran Times produced an article on the 7 Oct 22 with the headline, “One Nation, One Flag” in a clear attempt to bring the country together. They accused western media outlets of “fanning the flames of protest.” This attempt by the Iranian propaganda machine failed. The Arab News carried an article making reference from Amnesty International the same day, “At least 82 Balochi protesters and bystanders killed in bloody crackdown in Iran.” Zahra Ershadi, remember, One Nation, One Flag. The Arab News on the 22 Dec 21 carried an article where it states, “The Iranian regime’s policy in Sistan and Balochistan, and for that matter in other provinces too, is based on racial discrimination, assimilation, linguistic discrimination, religious prejudice and inequality, brutal oppression, deprivation and exclusion of the people who are the majority in their own respective provinces and regions.” “One thing they all have in common is brutality, callousness, arbitrary killing, genocide, and ethnic cleansing.” It's very kind of her to mention this topic. In 1988 the Iranian authorities who were acting on behalf of the orders of the then Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini executed thousands of political prisoners in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Iranian authorities executed between 2,800 and 5,000 (numbers differ) prisoners in at least 32 cities in the country. Authorities interrogated prisoners about their political beliefs and categorized them according to the degree of their perceived loyalty to Iran’s rulers. According to Amnesty International, some of the questions posed by the committee included:
The Universal Declaration for Human Rights was adopted by the United Nations on the 10 Dec 1948. It was created because of the experiences of World War Two. The United Nations vowed to never allow those atrocities created during the war to be repeated. The charter with a road map was designed to guarantee the rights of every individual everywhere. There were 48 countries that voted in favour of the Declaration. Of those, Iran, United Kingdom, United States, France, Canada, Sweden, Syria and Venezuela were signatories. Freedom Index by Country 2022 Ratings The West United Kingdom 8.75 United States 8.73 Canada 8.85 France 8.34 Sweden 8.83 Germany 8.73 Iran and some of its Allies Venezuela 4.03 Iran 4.53 Syria 3.66 (The figures speak for themselves) Amnesty International – Amnesty International Report 2021/22: The state of the world’s human rights Germany was split after being held responsible for starting both World War One and Two. Because of its split into East being part of the USSR (German Democratic Republic (GDR)) and West (Federal Republic of Germany (FRG)) being controlled by the Allies Germany did not sign up to the agreement. The two countries amalgamated on the 3 Oct 90. The UDHR contained a number of provisions that contradicted the political and social order of the GDR as run by the Socialist Unity Party (SED). In the late 1980s, human rights and the UDHR became symbols of the democratic opposition. Between 1986 to 2009 Germany has ratified numerous treaties in regard to Human Rights. IRGC Pay Rise In order to keep the security forces on side the Islamic Republic announced on the 30 Oct 22 that “Iranian security forces will receive a 20 percent pay rise in this year’s amended budget.” The amendment was put forward by Qom representative Ahmad Amirabadi Farahani who sparked controversy on the 25 Oct 22 when he claimed on state television that the photo of Amini laying on a hospital bed was taken by two US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) spies. This could “flame the fires” by those who have been protesting in the past about price rises, inflation, failing to put the staple food on the table, the Teachers who have not received a pay rise after being promised or the lawyers who were promised by Raisi being head of the judiciary before becoming president. Due to sanctions being placed on the Regime there are Iranians who cannot afford to place the basics on their table and inflation being one of the highest on record. Iran prefers to put emphasis on its proxies and support the Houthi’s and open supermarkets in Venezuela than look after its own people. There have been numerous protests in Iran over promised pay, wage and pension increases that have not happened. Now with the announcement of a pay increase of 20% to the “security” personnel this will no doubt assist those who oppose the regime. Revolution before the population. Another Threat made against the Amini Protestors A Kurdish news outlet on the 24 Nov 22 announced that the Iranian top commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) Commander Hosseini Salami said that its tolerance with the protesters was at an end (again) and that the guards would “drown” anyone who violates the country’s national security. This is the third threat since the 22 Oct 22 when Iran’s deputy interior minister Majid Mirahmadi on the 22 Oct 22 stated that the ‘riots’ are in their ‘final days’. On the 29 Oct 22 The commander of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Hossein Salami warned protesters (for the first time) that Saturday would be their last day of taking to the streets. “Do not come to the streets! Today is the last day of the riots,” Now there is a third threat and second from the IRGC commander. “Those who breach our national security … will be drowned.” He went on to say, “This is not sabre-rattling, I am a soldier and whatever I say I will put into plan. I warn the enemies, you are everywhere, your interests are everywhere, have mercy on yourself, you also need peace.” He was making reference to the IRGC’s heroic offensive against the Kurds on the Iran/Iraq border. Tasnimne announced that the heroic military had started a new round of attacks in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq on the 22 Nov 22. The IRGC forces have fired missiles and flown suicide drones to hit the targets on the outskirts of Kirkuk. The IRGC has launched several rounds of military strikes on the positions of separatist groups in Iraq’s Kurdistan Region in the past two months. Kirkuk is in Iraq not the autonomous region of Kurdistan. Although the Kurds for years have been making a case for it to be returned back to them after it was subsumed into the Ottoman Empire. The distance from Kirkuk to the Iraq/Iran border is approximately 290 Km or 180 miles. Any drones that were launched at Kirkuk would have had to cross Iraqi airspace. The threats against the Kurds continue from the Iranian Regime. More Political Prisoners Detained On the 24 Nov 22 it was announced that Iran had arrested a British-Iranian dual-nationalist female for allegedly working with BBC and foreign media. At the time of writing there was no name or date of arrest was given. All that was given was that the arrest was made by the intelligence services and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iran’s third city Isfahan. The Islamic Republic of Iran constantly tells the world that it does not use people for political-hostages whereas in reality most, if not all, dual nationalists are being held in appalling conditions to be used as and when Iran deems it necessary to gain a upper hand when it comes to conducting some form of negotiation. On the 22 Nov 22 Iran claimed to have arrested 40 foreigners without giving any details especially nationalities. In September, Tehran said nine Europeans had been arrested for their involvement in the protests. Australia, and the Netherlands confirmed that it had citizens detained in Iran, access denied as was consular access. Yemen 22 Nov 22 Yemen increases its air defence systems around its vital; oil terminal. Al-Dhabbah oil terminal on the Arabian Sea was subjected to a barrage of drones fired by the Houthi’s on the 21 Nov 22. This is not the first such attack on the legal government of Yemen since the ceasefire was broken by the Iranian backed Houthi’s in the beginning of Oct 22. Since the resumption of hostilities by the Houthis who in the past targeted oil and civilian targets in Saudi Arabia before the truce began, the Iranian backed Houthis are now focusing their attention on oil terminals at coastal ports which some have been Saudi tankers unloading their cargo. The flight times for drones launched by the Houthi’s is less than being launched into Saudi where the majority fail to reach their targets after being detected and neutralised. A Yemeni government official recently told Arab News that if the Houthis continued to strike oil tankers, it would be unable to pay public employees or support food imports. It is important to remember that on the 15 Nov 22 the United States Coast Guard ship USCGC John Scheuerman and guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans stopped and searched a Dhow which was found to have been a shipment of 100 tons of urea. The shipment was revealed to have originated in Iran and was being moved to Yemen. The fuel could be used for more than a dozen medium-range ballistic missiles. IAEA and Iran Because the IAEA have refused to drop the questions in regard to the uranium readings at three undeclared sites (Marivan, Varamin, and Turquzabad) which had not been declared by Iran as having hosted nuclear activities, Iran began enriching uranium to 60% at its Fordow site. The Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) announced the beginning of new nuclear activities on the 22 Nov 22. Iran has been under pressure for some time to answer questions regarding these three sites but so far have not come up with a credible answer. They have blamed the IAEA for being political, dancing to Zionist (Israel) and United States political agenda amongst other justifications for not answering. The Head of the IAEA has categorically told the Iranians that there is no political agenda either from the U.S nor Israel who are not a part of the negotiating team for the reimplementation of the 2015/16 Nuclear agreement. Iran has also accused Israel of being behind sabotage of the three sites. If the Iranian nuclear program is for peaceful purposes why keep using it to threaten others to get what you want? If it is for peaceful reasons why produce uranium way above the limit that you require for a “peaceful purpose” nuclear program? Muammar Gaddafi had ambitions to acquire nuclear weapons, to counter the alleged covert Israeli nuclear program. Gaddafi who came to power in 1969 ratified the NPT in 1975 and concluded the safeguards agreement with the IAEA in 1980. However, during the 1980’s Gaddafi was reportedly using illegal nuclear proliferation networks to start a nuclear weapons program to start developing WMD. Libya had managed to procure over 2,000 tons of lightly processed uranium from Niger and employed a Swiss nuclear engineer to commence the development of nuclear weapons. In December 2003 Gaddafi agreed to finish Libya’s nuclear weapons program. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said that the program had been in initial stages at the time. The nuclear program of Libya had been carried out even though Libya had been a member of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Libya is probably the reason why the IAEA, the United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany want explanations for the Iranian undisclosed three sites which were found to have uranium readings. Attacks on the Kurds
The spineless attacks on the Kurds by Iran on the border between Iran and Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region continuous. The headline in the Iranian propaganda outlet Tasnim on the 14 Nov 22 by the commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Ground Force Brigadier General Mohammad Pakpour stated that the IRGC will hit more terrorist targets in the KRG. He also stated those targets that had been attacked since 28 Sep 22 would be attacked again. He claimed that the new strikes were a result of continuous warnings to the Baghdad government about the “need to expel and disarm the separatist group in northern Iraq.” Another case of bullying, attempting to oppress and intimidate and continue to be a tyrant to a neighbouring country knowing how difficult it is for not just the Kurds but the Iraqi government to respond to the largest military force its neighbour Iran has. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said, "The Islamic Republic does not expect to be threatened from the Iraqi Kurdistan Region in view of the two countries' excellent relations." “The central government (in Iraq) is responsible to (stamp out) these (terrorist) measures." The point regarding “excellent relations” raise’s an eyebrow, odd comments when you read the Iranian version of ‘excellent’ relations and compare it with the Iraqi statement on the attacks. Iraqi News stated from the Iraqi Ministry of Foreign Affairs that “This unilateral and hostile approach will not help in finding solutions leading to stability. Our stances previously indicated the danger of such a blatant aggression on Iraq’s sovereignty and the safety of its citizens. This attack reflects the continuous threat that will cause confusion and increase tension in the region,” the statement explained. “The Ministry of Foreign Affairs will take high-level diplomatic measures in this regard and will do what it takes to preserve Iraq’s sovereignty in a manner that enhances the safety of its people,” the statement added. Yet again the mighty military force of the Islamic Republic of Iran takes on people who cannot fight back. Their attacks with rockets, missiles and drones are what would be called unheroic by others, but to the Iranian military their forces are heroic. What for? For victimising those who are reportedly responsible for the current demonstrations in Iran. If you take a pinch of salt and remove one grain from that pinch you will have ‘an’ (singular) element of truth when the Iranian propaganda machine reports anything. The murder of Mahsa Amini by the morality police and the protests that have been on-going since the 16 Sep 22 are the only element of truth. That is the one grain. Amini was a Kurd. For all their military might and boasting to the innocent people of Iran their attacks on the Kurds are pusillanimous. On the 18 Nov 22 Iraqi News reported that a liquid gas explosion had occurred in the Kurdish city of Sulaymaniyah killing, at the time of reporting, five people and injuring fifteen others. A spokesperson on the 19 Nov 22 for the Foreign Ministry of Iran expressed sympathy with Iraq over the explosion of a heating gas tank in the northern city of Sulaymaniyah that has killed at least “15 people” (one grain). On the one hand the Islamic State of Iran bombs, launches drones and missiles at innocent Kurds in the north of Iran on the Iraqi border, bragging about it; accuses the Kurds of inciting a revolution after Iranian morality police murder a Kurd for not wearing a headscarf correctly. Then an accident occurs killing several Kurdish people and the Iranians offers its condolences to the Kurds! A very good case of the Islamic Republic of Iran practising belittling hypocrisy. Then on the 19 Nov 22 a warning was delivered to Iraqi and Kurdish officials in Baghdad by Iran’s Quds Force commander Esmail Ghaani, who arrived in the capital on an unannounced two-day visit. Ghaani threatened Iraq with a ground military operation in the country’s north if the Iraqi army does not fortify the countries’ shared border against Kurdish opposition groups. A carrot and stick. Either you stop the Kurds from inciting demonstrations in Iran or we will invade. How nice of the Iranian Quds force commander to fly into a neighbouring country unannounced and issue a threat. Rock and a hard place for the Iraqi’s. The House that Ayatollah Khomeini Lived in On the 18 Oct 22 the Arab News reported that “Protestors burn down old home of Iran’s regime founder Ayatollah Khomeini.” Ayatollah Khomeini whose ideology continues to guide the Islamic Republic of Iran’s revolutionary ideals has been seen on social media outlets ablaze from an arson attack. The BBC verified the assault on the Ayatollah’s home which had been turned into museum commemorating his life a central point for the revolution. Regional authorities had denied there had been a violent incident saying, "the doors of the house of the late founder of the great revolution are open to the public." Other social outlets posted on-line showed people cheering as the fire broke out. The house, which belonged to Imam Khomeini (1902-1989), is a simple two-story structure (see opening picture). The late founder of the Islamic Revolution lived in the house from 1951 to 1964. The house was registered as a National Heritage Site in 1997. The Works of the Sources of Emulation Museum opened in the house in 2013. Iran and the Threat to Europe Iran’s “weapons proliferation” is a threat to Europe, President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen warned on the 18 Nov 22. Is Europe now seeing that the Iranian threat is not just against those residing in the Middle East and the United States but that it now involves a threat on a much wider scale? The Europeans have dithered for a long time over the years because matters occurring in Iran and particularly elsewhere have not really been seen as a large threat to Europe. However, with the Iranian supplying drones to the Russians the European Union must now see that the threat from Iran poses a greater danger especially ‘if’ the conflict in the Ukraine should possibly expand. In Aug 20 When the United States lobbied for an indefinite extension on the 13-year-old Iranian arms embargo against the Islamic Republic of Iran which was due to expire in Oct 20, Russia and China were against the extension with Germany, France and the United Kingdom abstaining. The U.S.-sponsored resolution only received two ‘yes’s’ and required nine to carry the vote. The then US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, said, "The Security Council's failure to act decisively in defence of international peace and security is inexcusable." Iran made it clear that they had defeated the United States, but it would not go on a spending spree. In the Tehran Times on the 19 Oct 20 Defence Minister Brigadier General Amir Hatami said, “that Iran will sell more weapons than it will purchase following the expiration of a UN arm embargo on Tehran that expired on the 18 Oct.” On the 23 Oct 20 according to Press TV,Government Spokesman Ali Rabi'ei said, the country that buys Iran’s weapons must pursue an ethical and responsible approach, refrain from warmongering, and want the weapons only for defence. “Iran will make the decision [to sell its weapons] in full compliance with international rules and framework,” he added. Iran says to sell weapons only for ‘defensive purposes.’ The selling of drones and missiles to Russia in an illegal war obviously defines Iran’s definition of “defensive purposes” which beggars the question when it comes to Iran’s nuclear program being for “peaceful purposes.” Proof of Iranian involvement in Yemen On the 15 Nov 22 the United States Coast Guard ship USCGC John Scheuerman and guided-missile destroyer USS The Sullivans stopped and searched a Dhow along a route in the Gulf of Oman. The vessel was found to be carrying bags of ammonium perchlorate hidden inside of what initially appeared to be a shipment of 100 tons of urea. Urea, a fertilizer, also can be used to manufacture explosives. The shipment was revealed to have originated in Iran and was being moved to Yemen. This is the first find of illegal activity since the ceasefire between the Houthi’s and the Yemen government came to an end by the Houthi’s. The Iranian-backed Houthi’s clarified this in a statement on the 1 Oct 22 when they said the ceasefire in Yemen is at “a dead end.” The U.S. Navy said the amount of ammonium perchlorate discovered could fuel more than a dozen medium-range ballistic missiles, the same weapons Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have used to target both forces allied to the country’s internationally recognized government and the Arab Coalition that supports them. At the disclosure of the find, Houthis could not be immediately reached for comment. Iran’s mission to the United Nations did not immediately respond to a request for comment. However, on the 18 Nov 22 in the Islamic Republic of Iran Tasnimne News outlet they said, “The Iranian UN mission vehemently rejected the US Navy’s claims that Iran was trying to smuggle 70 tons of a missile fuel component hidden among bags of fertilizer aboard a ship bound for Yemen.” They later also stated, the diplomatic mission further said that “Iran is doing its utmost to restore the truce agreement and facilitate dialogue among Yemeni groups as soon as possible in order to establish peace and stability in Yemen,” Press TV reported.” The Iranians had not, nor have not, contributed to the failed ceasefire. More hypocrisy. State-Sponsored Intimidation On the 16 Nov 22 the head of the British intelligence agency said that they had thwarted at least ten occasions of Iranian plots to kill or kidnap people residing in the UK. Ken McCallum, Director General of the Security Service known as MI5 said, “At its sharpest this includes ambitions to kidnap or even kill British or UK-based individuals perceived as enemies of the regime,” He added, “We have seen at least 10 such potential threats since January alone.” Iranian officials were not immediately available for comment. Iran is well known for its attempts to silence others who stand up against the regime particularly in Europe and the United States. On the 19 Nov 22 Canada Eric Balsam, spokesman for the Canadian Security Intelligence Service “CSIS is actively investigating several threats to life emanating from the Islamic Republic of Iran based on credible intelligence.” No other details were given. British police have now deployed armed policemen around the offices of the Persian-language TV channel Iran International in response to the threats made against two of their journalists. The media channel has accused the Islamic State of Iran of “State-Sponsored Intimidation” a first for this new category and one that holds true. Iran and Israel Maritime War to Continue? On the 16 Nov 22 Israeli-controlled Eastern Pacific Shipping reported a drone strike against a tanker off of the coast of Oman. The vessel was attacked by a drone bearing extreme similarities to an Iranian Shahed-136 drone, the type that has been supplied to Russia for use in the Ukraine by Iran. Eastern Pacific Shipping, which manages the vessel, said it was investigating the incident involving the Pacific Zircon tanker approximately 150 miles off Oman and accountability of the crew had been done with no injuries or loss of life. The drone had struck the hull causing minor damage and no oil spill. The United States said they were confident that Iran was responsible for the attack. White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan said. “Upon review of the available information, we are confident that Iran likely conducted this attack using a UAV, a lethal capability it is increasingly employing directly and via its proxies throughout the Middle East and proliferating to Russia for use in Ukraine.” All the Tasnimne News agency reported was “under the condition of anonymity, a West Asian defence official told The Associated Press that a drone carrying a bomb had attacked the oil ship Tuesday night off the coast of Oman.” The news outlet also said, “the attack has not yet been attributed to anyone.” On the 30 Jul 21 a Briton and a Romanian were killed after a ‘one way’ drone strike hit a petroleum products tanker managed by Israeli-owned Zodiac Maritime off of Oman’s coast. This was the last time that a merchant ship was attacked. It may be possible that we are about to see a resurgence of maritime attacks as Iran continues to suffer demonstrations in the country. By attacking maritime shipping Iran could be attempting to put pressure on nations to stop the press and media coverage of Iran’s internal problems. The last attack was after President Trump withdrew from the 2015 nuclear agreement which saw incidents of this nature rise. Iran was in the frame for the last attack. Iranian Demonstrations Reports indicate that the current demonstrations and protests are causing the regime of the Islamic Republic big problems as they fail to contain them. Although on two different days and the issuing of two different statements a week apart from prominent officials claiming that the protesters days would be their last, nothing happened. The rallies continued despite the regimes attempt to intimidate those taking part. Reports of police stations being targeted along with statues; Mosques, clergy establishments and the dwellings of prominent people have continued unabated. Threats and intimidation are failing, the world’s press and media are on the hunt and the regime is having problems. State television Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned that Iran’s enemies my try to mobilise workers after failing to topple the regime. This may indicate that those who have complained about the lack of wages in the past are now filling the ranks of the protesters and that there have been several strikes where shop have closed, and people have not turned up for work. Protests spread into the vital energy sector last month but demonstrations by workers, which have partly addressed demands linked to pay and working conditions, have been limited. He may have had a premonition of an occurrence forty plus years ago when, “In 1979, a combination of mass protests and strikes by oil workers and bazaar merchants helped to sweep the clergy to power in Iran’s Islamic revolution.” Déjà vu? JCPOA Plan ‘B’
The stalemate for the revival of the 2016 JCPOA agreement is well documented after no move since Aug/Sep 22 with both sides blaming the other for not being flexible in the agreement revival. There are also the issue of drones being sent to Russia from Iran and the on-going demonstrations in Iran from females attempting to stand up to the Iranian regime. In the past both sides in the agreement attempted to sit down and find a way for diplomacy to be the sensible option. Iran insists that the United States guarantee that the Americans will not walk away from any agreement in the future should the Republicans come back into power. President Trump (Republican) walked away from the agreement in 2018. The Biden administration (Democrat) made the revival an election promise. It’s now November and the United States mid-term elections are due to be held on the 8 Nov 22. The election pledge to return to the JCPOA deal has not happened which will give the Republicans some ammunition. The Biden administration as always stated that if there was no return to the agreement then the military option was on the table along with a Plan B. No matter who asked there was never any sign of a hint as to what Plan B would be. It would now appear that Plan B was, and will be what people thought all along that it would be the military option if an agreement was not reached and the Iranians decide to build a nuclear weapon. The Plan B option was reiterated on the 31 Oct 22 when US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley said that the military option was still on the table if diplomacy failed in trying to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. Nothing else was mentioned, certainly nothing to do with any Plan B option. The Americans see the biggest threat to the United States would be from the Islamic Republic of Iran should it have a nuclear device and the United States is being “consistent and necessary to promote our values and our national security interests.” (The Times of Israel 01 Nov 22). The Iranians are already dug in deep in Venezuela. In Aug 20 President Maduro said that it would be a good idea to look into purchasing Iranian missiles. The United States response to this suggestion was simple, "The transfer of long-range missiles from Iran to Venezuela is not acceptable to the United States and will not be tolerated or permitted," Elliott Abrams, US Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela said. He added, "We will make every effort to stop shipments of long-range missiles, and if somehow they get to Venezuela they will be eliminated there." If Iran was to build a nuclear device and get into Venezuela then a re-enactment of the of October 1962 could take place. However, in all these discussions in regards to the talks to halt Iran to have a nuclear device there are two camps or is it three? The first camp is the West (United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany) three members of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council along with Germany (+1), the second camp is made up of Iranian allies China and Russia, (the other two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council) the third camp being the Islamic Republic of Iran. With Iran being so close to the Middle East it would have been thoughtful to have several members from the Region on the negotiating table as Iran with a nuclear device would be a greater threat to the Middle East. This being the case until Iran managed to find a rocket or missile with the capability of reaching the shores of the United States. Israel has already stated on more than one occasion that it will strike the Islamic Republic of Iran should it even show a hint of building a nuclear device. So, the military option has always been there. If Israel was to start a direct action against Iran, then its allies would or should step up to the mark. Iran for all its boasting and rhetoric knows this and has to tread carefully. It may boast to its population that no one would dare attack it but in reality, Iran can only allow its proxies to hurt its enemies for to be confronted by an outside military force directly, would be the downfall of the Iranian revolutionary hopes and future. However, later developments have made one point a little clearer. The Iranians claimed through the Tehran Times that there really was a Plan B. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said on the 5 Nov 22 that Iran’s recent unrest was Plan B pursued by the United States and the U.S. had failed in implementing this plan. Hindsight can be a wonderful thing but to know the future is an outstanding achievement. To predict or know that the murder of a young female (Mahsa Amini) at the hands of the Islamic Republic’s morality police would spark off nationwide demonstrations is beyond being a psychic phenomenon knowing that Plan B was the demonstrations. There was no further explanation as he then changed the subject. There are numerous accounts of various countries being blamed by Iran for the unrest but being able to pick one out and claim that it was the American Plan B is a very clever achievement. Detracting from the sarcasm Iran did announce that it had successfully launched a new satellite carrier into space (Tasnim News Agency 5 Nov 22) using a solid fuel rocket. Iran claims that their space program is similar to its nuclear program and that it is for peaceful purposes. The west and the United States have and are suspicious of the space program as they believe that the same technology can be used to develop a rocket or missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. It could be coincidental that the Iranian space program and its search for deeper penetration into space along with its nuclear program are being researched and established at the same time. Europe The demonstrations in an effort to stand up for human rights and the freedom of females in the Islamic Republic of Iran continues. The Iranians announced on the 1 Nov 22 that it was to hold public trials of a thousand people on trial and will do so in public in a Revolutionary Court. The protestors will be accused of “acts of sabotage, including assaulting or killing security guards and setting fire to public property.” Some will face the death penalty. On the 17 Oct 22 the European Union imposed sanctions on Iran’s morality police and officials were cited. From a CBS YouTube report dated 30 Oct 22 the news channel announced that there had been 1400 people such as lawyers, music artists, journalists along with other backgrounds had been ‘detained’. They also announced that 7 of those detained were to be executed. The trials come after a period of detention depending on the mental strength of the individual. Often, they are held with no contact with the outside world nor their families. They would endure intense interrogation from skilled interrogators and without proper access to a lawyer. These trails started on the 30 Oct 22 and the individuals were charged with ‘waging war’, ‘corruption of the earth’ or ‘corruption on earth’. It is important that the reader remembers that the Islamic Republic of Iran is worked on a Theocratic society. (A state thus governed; theocrat, a divine or deified ruler (1523)) These charges can lead to the death penalty. The trial of the accused is supposedly a ‘public trial’ but family members are rarely allowed in and detainees are not allowed an attorney of their choice but have a state appointed one. There is no independent press or media allowed into the ‘public’ trial, just state appointed press and media. Any evidence used in the trial is not seen by the detainee or their lawyer until the start of the trial. The evidence may have been fabricated and will not be allowed to have any cross examination. The detainee may have been forced to make a confession sometimes it is even televised which the detainee will have no knowledge of, this will be used against them. Any ‘witnesses’ presented will not be cross examined either. All in all, a fair system. Sanctions On the 26 Oct 22 Iran announced sanctions against eight institutions and 12 individuals based in the EU, accusing them of “supporting terrorist groups”, “inciting violence” and “provoking riots, violence and terrorist acts” in Iran in relation to the anti-regime protests. The Iranian blacklist includes the International Committee in Search of Justice, the International League against Racism and Anti-Semitism, and the Persian versions of German broadcaster Deutsche Welle and Radio France Internationale. European politicians and two individuals at the German tabloid newspaper Bild were also sanctioned. Those on the list are subject to visa bans and the seizure of any property or assets the targeted individuals and entities have in Iran. The sanctions placed on the European people and organisations don’t hold up too much. They are merely a propaganda tool used by the Iranians to inform the population that if sanctions are imposed on them, then they can do the same, ha, take that. The EU on the 31 Oct announced that it was looking to launch another sanction package against Iran and also look into listing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. The thought of placing the IRGC on a terrorist list comes after the IRGC Commander announced on the 29 Oct 22 that that day would be the last day of taking to the streets and demonstrating. Although a separate issue, the Iranians announced on the 1 Nov 22 through the Tasnim News Agency that it was imposing sanctions on United States individuals, entities for Human Rights violations and gave a list of those who it “effected.” The day before, the same news outlook wrote that the spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of Iran took a swipe at Germany for its unconstructive initiative to classify the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist organization”. Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Nasser Kanaani denounced Germany’s plan to add the IRGC to the list of “terrorist organizations” as another “irresponsible measure” in relation to the Islamic Republic that results from a “wrong approach” to the Iranian government and nation. The Tehran Times went further and asked if “Germany was playing with fire?” As Germany is part of the “ongoing” talks at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) the Iranian regime said that ‘IF’ Germany (and/or the EU) was to place the IRGC on a terrorist list then it would complicate matters. The news outlet said, if “the EU sanctions on the IRGC would add another horrendous obstacle to reviving the JCPOA, if not spelling the end of the JCPOA.” Clearly an open threat in order to stop the implementation of the IRGC being placed on another foreign terrorist list. The Iranian foreign spokesman Kananni said, “The IRGC is an official military organization of Iran and such a move is illegal. We hope that the German government and other states take note of their unconstructive measures and refrain from sacrificing their bilateral interests for transient political interests and emotional decisions.” Approximately 50 German firms have offices in Iran and several companies have a major involvement in Iranian infrastructure projects. German banks announced in 2018 that German exports to Iran had been reduced by 1.8 billion euros. Another reason why Germany was so keen to revive the JCPOA agreement. Germany’s support for the demonstrations led 80,000 to the streets on the 22 Oct 22 showing “solidarity with courageous women and demonstrations in Iran. The Tehran Times put a different spin on the rally two days after the event. They claimed that the people of Germany took to the streets claiming that, “Protesters have staged demonstrations across Germany as the Ukraine war is seriously damaging the living standards of millions of middle-class citizens, many of whom are slipping into poverty.” It was an immense propaganda piece with nothing in it to give the real reason for the Germans holding such large gatherings. Iranian Guilt on Drones shows how Iran lies One of the top countries in the world for not telling the truth finally admitted in an Al-Arabiya report on the 5 Nov 22 that they were providing Russia with drones. Although not quiet going the full distance they stated that the drones had been supplied to Russia ‘before’ the illegal Russian invasion against the Ukraine on the 20 Feb 22. Their most common word for refuting all, or any involvement in anything they have been accused of, knowledge to have been involved in and/or intelligence that points to Iranian involvement is “baseless.” By their own admission, they have now, made the past comments regarding not supplying drones to Russia ‘baseless’. This was also due to the evidence stacked against the Islamic Republic of Iran that western intelligence services knew that Russia was being supplied with Iranian drones. When you look at the accusations against Iran for supplying the UAV’s they came long after the conflict had started and following reports that Russia had problems with its logistical chain regarding the resupplying of its front-line troops with arms, ammunition, drones and missiles. The so-called impartiality that the Islamic Republic of Iran alleges to show in the Russia/Ukraine conflict has now been blown out of the water and its evident that Iran has supported the Russians from the start. The Iranians have even lied to the United Nations. Iran’s Ambassador to the UN Amir Saeid Iravani called the allegations “totally unfounded” and reiterated Iran’s position of neutrality in the war. Iran’s foreign minister Amirabdollahian claimed on the 5 Nov 22 that Iran was oblivious to the use of its drones in Ukraine. He said Iran remained committed to stopping the conflict. The Iranian foreign minister has asked the Ukrainians to provide evidence regarding Iranian drones being used, why? By their own admission they have just self-confessed to supplying the drones to Russia so why did they not admit this earlier? On the 5 Nov 22 the only headline worthy of note in the Tehran Times was, “FM calls accusations against Iran on Ukraine fabricated, unsubstantiated.” On the one hand Iran lies to the world, on the other they lie to their own people. First, they admit the involvement then they state that they are not involved. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy explained that the version of the Iranian drone admission was false. On the 5 Nov 22 he said, “Even with this confession, they are lying,” the Ukrainian leader said. The number of Iranian combat drones shot down by Ukrainian air defences exceeds the “few” drones cited by Iran. Al Jazeera carried another twist to the admission. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in the past has requested the Ukrainians to produce proof in Iran’s involvement with the war and provide evidence that would indicate Iran. The Tehran Times on the 22 Oct 22 made a comment regarding the so called evidence that had been produced regarding Iran backed Houthi forces launching drones at Saudi Arabian facilities. The news outlet stated “In December 2017, the then U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley stood in front of a pile of debris and scrap metal that could have been collected from the White House waste storage facilities and claimed that they were remnants of Iranian missiles that had been launched from Yemen.” “It’s just simply not enough to present so-called evidence with “made in Iran” written on a piece of metal because the American Special Forces in eastern Ukraine can easily make that up.” Not only did the wording change but also what the Iranians wanted in regards to proof of its involvement. Amirabdollahian explained on Press TV that, “We agreed with Ukraine’s foreign minister that if they have any ‘document’s’ proving Russia has been using Iranian drones in Ukraine, Kiev should provide these documents to us.” Documented evidence would be harder to come by that physical evidence which means that the lies and deceit will continue longer. Even if documented evidence was produced it would be quickly discounted by Iran as a Zionist or a United States plot that would be “politically motivated, biased and won’t deliver accurate results, levelling fake accusations against Iran with the intent of damaging Tehran’s international relations.” As claimed by the Tehran Times on the 22 Oct 22. |
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