“Middle Eastern nations need to use their influence over regional actors to ensure the Gaza conflict is contained and prevent “an endless cycle of violence.” (7th January 2024, Arab News, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Middle east Tour) Peace in the Middle East: Food for Thought With so many countries with an ideology of removing Israel, they are, without a doubt fighting for their existence. There are many countries around the world demanding a ceasefire no more so than Muslim speaking countries in and around the Middle East. Unless those demanding a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas can guarantee that nothing like the attack that occurred 7th October 2023 will ever happen against Israel in the future they will continue fighting. As it stands there are more countries against the victim than there are against the aggressors. The appeasement towards the main culprit, Iran, is evident as they continue to wreak havoc throughout the Middle East or West Asia with no one keeping them in check. The Arab world must take some blame for the current situation between the Palestinians and Israel. Nothing has been, nor would it, do anything to ensure a resolution between Israel, and Palestine was found. All the peace proposals that have been put forward have given a zero result hence todays problem. If any of those peace proposals had any significance then the war with Israel and Hamas would not be happening. The Israeli-Palestinian conflict has been a long-standing issue, and many countries have attempted to broker peace between the two sides. However, there is no definitive answer to whether any Muslim country has offered a peace proposal that has worked. The Oslo Accords were signed in September 1993 by the Palestine Liberation Organisation’s Yasser Arafat and Israel’s Labour Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in Washington. The deal was a historic breakthrough as it meant that the PLO recognised the State of Israel for the first time, and Israel recognised the PLO as the representative of the Palestinians. It allowed for the self-administration of major Palestinian population areas by a new Palestinian Authority, led by Arafat, although the majority of the West Bank remained under joint or sole Israeli control. The interim period was supposed to build both mutual trust and Palestinian institutions. However, the process fell apart and major stumbling blocks remained. The difficult “final status” issues were not resolved by 1999, including the exact borders of a new Palestinian state, the status of Jerusalem, the fate of Palestinian refugees and their descendants, Israel’s settlements, and Israel’s security arrangements. Negotiations continued but ultimately failed. The Arab Peace Initiative, proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002, called for Israel to withdraw from the territories it occupied in 1967, including East Jerusalem, in exchange for normalizing relations with Arab countries. The initiative was re-endorsed by the Arab League in 2007 and 2017, but it has not been implemented. In 1979, Egypt became the first Arab country to sign a peace treaty with Israel, followed by Jordan in 1994. However, the peace treaties have not led to a resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There have only been two peace treaties that have stood the test of time. The peace treaty between Israel and Egypt was called the Egypt–Israel peace treaty. It was signed in Washington, D.C., United States, on 26 March 1979, following the 1978 Camp David Accords. The treaty was signed by Anwar Sadat, President of Egypt, and Menachem Begin, Prime Minister of Israel, and witnessed by Jimmy Carter, President of the United States. The peace treaty between Israel and Jordan was signed on 26th October 1994. The treaty is formally known as the “Treaty of Peace between the State of Israel and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan.” It ended the state of war that had existed between the two countries since the 1948 Arab-Israeli War and established mutual diplomatic relations. The treaty also settled land and water disputes, provided for broad cooperation in tourism and trade, and obligated both countries to prevent their territory being used as a staging ground for military strikes by a third country. In summary, while some Muslim countries have offered peace proposals between Israel and the Palestinians, none of them have led to a resolution of the conflict. The Arab Peace Initiative, proposed by Saudi Arabia in 2002, called for Israel to withdraw from the territories it occupied in 1967, including East Jerusalem, in exchange for normalizing relations with Arab countries. The initiative was re-endorsed by the Arab League in 2007 and 2017, but it has not been implemented. Relationships Saudi Arabia has had strained relations with Hamas due to its ties with Iran. The Saudi’s are partly to blame. Whilst they want the war in Gaza to stop, they fail to address the common factor, Iran. Iran and Saudi Arabia through negotiations using Oman and Iraq but mainly with the help of China signed an agreement in March 2023 to renew diplomatic relations after a seven year period of no diplomatic ties. If Arab countries had put as much into stopping the smuggling of weapons and other military logistics into Gaza and the West Bank as they do to blaming Israel for the current situation then this whole mess would have been sorted out a long time ago. Israel is blamed for the blockade of the Gaza Strip. But no other country wanted to assist and stop Iran attempting to smuggle weapons, ammunition and other equipment into the Gaza Strip which would upset the equilibrium in the area. Israel was not the only country involved with the blockade. Egypt was also responsible. Currently even a large number of press and media outlets refer to the conflict as the “Israel Gaza conflict.” They are incorrect. It is the Israel – Hamas conflict. Iran, the Palestine Islamic Jihad and Hamas have put the people of Gaza in the firing line with no respect for the ordinary Palestinian. The three are more than comfortable placing innocent civilians and structures to their own use and that is to turn the world against Israel by using propaganda. Remember, Israel did not choose the battle ground for this current conflict. Now with the Hamas – Israel conflict the Saudis do not want to upset the fragile agreement brokered by China. Whist Iran continues to boast of their new found relationship they are also the ones in the driving seat regarding the Hamas – Israel war. Iran is the lead vocal calling, for nations to stop supporting Israel by boycotting Israeli goods. They are also the lead voice telling others to rid the region of the United States and the United Kingdom. Iran claims that only regional countries can provide the security needed. Iran has the largest military force in the Middle East and is more than capable of overpowering any other military power with its drone and missile capabilities which have been left unchallenged. With a weakened United States presence in the Gulf Region Iran could then go the whole hog and produce at least one nuclear device giving it the overall capability to threaten any country putting any resistance to Iran being the overall power in the Region. Even though both Israel and the United States have pledged that Iran would never have ‘the bomb.’ The talks and agreement of 2015/16 gave the Obama administration the upper hand at the time of signing. The Trump administration withdrew from the agreement in 2018 after president trump believed the agreement should have gone further and including Iranian drone and missile capabilities and Iran’s use of their proxies in the region. Regional Actors who do not want Peace Hezbollah (The Party of God) – is supported by Syria and of course Iran who are an Asian country. Hezbollah is a Shia Islamist political party and militant group based in Lebanon. Hezbollah has been a long-time ally of the Ba’ath government of Syria, ruled by the Al-Assad family. Hezbollah has helped the Syrian Ba’ath government during the Syrian civil war in its fight against the Syrian opposition, which Hezbollah has described as a “plot to destroy its alliance with al-Assad against Israel.” According to the Institute for the Study of War, Iran and Syria have been the primary supporters of Hezbollah. The Palestinian Islamic jihad (PIJ) is primarily supported by Iran. The PIJ is a militant group founded with the goal of liberating Palestine through armed struggle and by appealing to the region’s Islamic heritage. Iran provides the group with financial aid, military assistance, and political backing. PIJ is considered a terrorist organization by several countries, including the United States, European Union, Israel, and others. While Iran is a key supporter, the level of support from other Middle Eastern countries varies, and some countries in the region, such as Saudi Arabia, view PIJ with suspicion due to regional rivalries and differing geopolitical interests. The Syrian government, led by Bashar al-Assad, has also provided the group with a safe haven in Damascus. Saudi Arabia views the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) with suspicion mainly due to regional rivalries and geopolitical considerations. The Saudi government has historically aligned itself with other political actors and groups that share Sunni affiliations. PIJ, being a Shiite-affiliated organization and having close ties with Iran, runs counter to Saudi Arabia's interests in the region. Saudi Arabia has traditionally supported Palestinian groups that align more closely with Sunni interests, such as Fatah, which is led by the Palestinian Authority. These sectarian and geopolitical factors contribute to Saudi Arabia's scepticism and suspicion towards the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Fatah is a Palestinian nationalist and social democratic political party. It was founded in the late 1950s by Yasser Arafat, Mahmoud Abbas, and others. Fatah has had a strong involvement in revolutionary struggle in the past and has maintained a number of militant groups. However, unlike its rival Islamist faction Hamas, Fatah is no longer regarded as a terrorist organization by any government. Saudi Arabia has recently shifted its stance towards the Palestinian cause, including Hamas and the PIJ. The country has been aligning itself with US and Israeli positions that are hostile to the Palestinian cause. According to Middle East Eye, Saudi Arabia has put dozens of Hamas members and supporters on trial, which is a dangerous shift in its policy towards Hamas and Palestinians. The trials have started nearly a year after Riyadh launched a campaign of arrests targeting dozens of Hamas members and supporters, which included closing their companies, confiscating their money and prohibiting bank transfers. However, the reasons behind Saudi Arabia’s shift in policy towards PIJ are not clear. Hamas is a Palestinian Sunni Islamist militant group that currently governs the Gaza Strip. According to the US State Department, Hamas is supported by Iran and Turkey. Qatar is also known to have provided financial and political support to Hamas. Qatar is a key financial backer and ally of the Palestinian militant organization Hamas. Qatar has transferred more than $1.8 billion to Hamas. The current head of Hamas, Ismail Haniyeh, has resided in Doha since 2016. Qatar has been called Hamas’ most important financial backer and foreign ally. It is important to note that Qatar has denied supporting Hamas’ political position and has stated that its policy is to help facilitate constructive engagement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. Qatar’s involvement in negotiations with US enemies, hosting of Hamas leaders, and its role in facilitating military agreements with the US have been reported in the news. Syria has a long and complicated relationship with Hamas. Hamas’ origins lie in the trans-national Muslim Brotherhood group, which believes politics should be guided by religion and which undertakes social welfare and community activities, but also has an armed wing. Before the rift, Hamas had long kept a political base in Syria, receiving Damascus’ support in its campaign against Israel. However, the Syrian government, led by Bashar al-Assad, has also provided the group with a safe haven in Damascus. Hamas are not short of funds. Turkey Turkey has been a staunch supporter of the Palestinians, including Hamas, for more than 20 years. The presidency of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan began when Erdoğan took the oath of office on 28th August 2014. According to The Times of Israel, Turkey has a long and lasting relationship with Hamas. Turkey has allowed the terror group to keep an office in Istanbul for more than a decade and has kept in touch with Hamas leadership since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023. Turkey’s support for Hamas is also driven by President Erdogan’s ideological affinity for the Muslim Brotherhood which is where the main ideology of Hamas originated from. Turkey considers Hamas as a liberation and not a terrorist group. Turkish President Erdogan said, “Hamas is not a terrorist organization, it is a liberation group, ‘mujahideen’ waging a battle to protect its lands and people.” Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has slammed Israel for its ‘shameful methods’ with its war in Gaza. He fails to mention his countless attacks on innocent Kurds. Turkey hosts senior Hamas officials, including Saleh al-Arouri. Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh and former chief Khaled Meshal visit Turkey often. According to Israel's Shin Bet, Hamas has established a command post in Turkey. which it uses to recruit operatives and oversee operations in the Middle East. The Foundation for Defence of Democracies reported that in December 2023 Hamas leaders held a secret meeting in Turkey. The meeting included the deputy chairman of Hamas’s political bureau, Saleh al-Arouri, along with former Hamas chief Khaled Mashal and other high-ranking Hamas officials. According to the report, the officials discussed potential next steps in the war against Israel (Oct 23), potential involvement by the Lebanese, Iran-backed terrorist group Hezbollah, and a possible new round of hostage releases. Turkey provides financial and logistical support to Hamas. The Turkish government has become a stalwart supporter of the Palestinian militant group. Senior Hamas officials, including Saleh al-Arouri (later killed in Lebanon on the 2nd January 2024), are based in Turkey. Hamas head Ismail Haniyeh and former chief Khaled Meshal visit Turkey often. The Times of Israel reported on the 14th September 2023 that Israel had intercepted 16 tons of chemicals used in rocket fuel headed to the Gaza Strip from Turkey. Authorities say the shipment of ammonium chloride was hidden in containers of plaster, discovered by customs officials at Ashdod port. Ammonium chloride is a dual-use chemical that Israel bars from Gaza due to its potential to be used to construct rockets. Hamas dismissed the find as “fabrication.” Clearly Turkey wants peace in the Middle East but has done nothing to prevent a conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. Military Support Hamas, the PIJ and Hezbollah are supported by Iran especially when it comes to supplying weapons and or technology. Middle Eastern intelligence organisations must be aware of how weapons and ammunition are finding their way to these organisations but choose to do nothing. By doing nothing and allowing the Islamic Republic of Iran to supply weapons, training and ammunition to these groups they are inciting unrest, war and the killing of innocent civilians. There is a constant flow of intelligence and information that crosses between nations. If the west is aware of what is happening then those countries in the Middle East must also be aware. Ignorance is no excuse. The blockade of the Gaza Strip and Houthi shipping ports are all in place to attempt military logistics being smuggled into those respective locations. It’s all very well countries demanding the lifting of these blockades but unless those countries band together the militant organisations that are being supplied will continue to cause peaceful problems in the Middle East.” Interfering with the Affairs of Middle eastern Countries With the assistance of Iran from planning to funding, Hamas (and other proxies in the Region) were able to prepare for the inevitable confrontation with Israel. Iran is as much to blame as are those who chose to ignore the intelligence that they must have found over the years that Iran planned to use a proxy terrorist group to attack Israel. People have known for a long time that Hamas was building tunnels and that Iran was assisting them. The Islamic Republic of Iran has since it came to be in 1979 sworn to eradicate Israel and over the last four decades built up armies to surround Israel. Hezbollah, Hamas and the Palestine Islamic Jihad movements to name three of the more prominent ones. Iran supports and funds these organisations for one reason and that is to fight Israel on behalf of the Tehran government so that they can achieve one of their main revolutionary goals. Those who have turned a blind eye to this knowledge are as guilty as any other. After all, if the west know of Iran’s malign activities so does Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Bahrain, Oman and the UAE. Turkey must also be included with these countries. They have dirty hands. Conclusion France’s foreign minister Catherine Colonna was not short when she spoke to the Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian when she, “delivered a very clear message: the risk of regional conflagration has never been so great; Iran and its affiliates must immediately cease their destabilizing acts.” The one factor that everyone is failing to not just mention, but also address, is the main culprit in the destabilisation of the Middle east. The second point to be addressed are those who support and give funds to Hamas and other terrorist organisations in the Region because they are Muslim or Arab for, they also threaten peace in the Middle East. Acquiring peace in the Region will be long and complex with politicians and peace makers being in the forefront. But, the Nations of the Middle East, not the Islamic Republic of Iran who must be kept out of all negotiations, must show willingness for any initiative to work. Iran’s plan of ‘neighbourhood policy’ is a method of ‘divide and conquer.’ Encouraging countries in the Middle East to cease having friendly ties with the United States and Israel is nothing short of attempting to dictate who they can and cannot have bonds with. The United States must also shoulder some of the blame. From its ‘listening tours’ to its heads of state visits there will have been an exchange of intelligence. Currently there is still a great deal of support for terrorist organisations in the Middle East that nations must stop in order for peace to move forward. Unless the intelligence organisations of the Middle East support one another in putting a stop to the evil militias in the Region, war, unrest and any notion of peace will never get off the starting blocks. If they want a peaceful Region then they will have to do something about it and not just turn a blind eye to what is happening under their noses and in their own back yard. In order for peace to be achieved in the Middle East, Israel has to be included as it is an integral part of the Region. The other is to isolate and cease the Iranian interference within Middle Eastern countries. It would be a difficult road but one that should be made a priority in order to give those who live in the Region a decent way of life instead of hate. But for all that to happen, leaders, politicians and lawmakers need to sit down and talk. Who is the most Disruptive Actor in the Middle East, The Region, The Levent and/or West Asia?1/2/2024 Foreign hostages are “our guests.”
(Hamas military spokesman Abu Obeida. Times of Israel, 16th October 2023) “About the peaceful citizens that were taken and that are now in Gaza, we treat them as guests.” “The civilians were taken as “a result of chaos.” (Hamas representative Moussa Abu Marzook. Al-Arabiya News, 28th October 2023) Introduction The horrific and violent assault that was conducted by the terrorist group Hamas against Israelis on the 7th October 1973 was undeniably an atrocity that the Israeli’s and the world would not forget. The world reeled at the fierce, brutal and cruel manner that the terrorists went about their carnage on many innocent lives. Hamas kidnapped over 200 people from approximately 22 countries including children as young as ten months old. Numbers still vary. Murdering approximately 1400 people and some in an unimaginable way was not enough. Hamas took hostages. Hamas deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri spoke to Al Jazeera and confirmed the group had a large number of Israeli captives – at the time Hamas did not give any numbers but said, there were enough to secure the release of all Palestinians prisoners. They would be used as bargaining chips at a later date. This was not the first time that Israel had faced a serious hostage crisis in its history. Previous Israeli Hostage Crisis’s In 1972 at the Munich Olympic games the Palestinian terrorist group Black September disguised as athletes forced their way into the Israeli Olympic living area and after murdering two Israeli athletes took another nine hostage. They demanded the release of 234 Palestinian prisoners who were being held in Israeli jails, plus the West German–imprisoned founders of the Red Army Faction, Andreas Baader and Ulrike Meinhof. The operation to secure the hostages release did not go well resulting in the death of all the hostages. Five terrorists were killed and the three remaining Black September terrorists were captured. In October 1972 sympathizers of the Black September Organization hijacked a Lufthansa flight. Their aim was to secure the release of the three terrorists captured after the Munich Olympic rescue disaster by threatening to blow the aircraft up if they were not set free. The terrorists were flown to Zagreb Airport and eventually on to Tripoli where they were released. The Israeli governments response to the deaths of their athletes was to send teams to track down and kill those who were involved in the terrorist murders of the Israel athletes. The campaign was known as Operation Wrath of God or Mivtza Za'am Ha'El. The Entebbe Raid. Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine – External Operations (PFLP-EO) and two Germans from the German Revolutionary Cells hijacked Air France Flight 139 on the 27th June 1976. The aircraft eventually ended up at Uganda’s Entebbe International Airport where the hijackers enjoyed support from the then president and dictator Idi Amin. The aircraft passengers consisted of mainly Jewish and Israeli a total of 242 people on board, excluding aircrew and cabin staff. The terrorist’s demands stated their objective were the release of 40 Palestinian and affiliated militants imprisoned in Israel as well as the release of 13 prisoners in four other countries. Non-Israeli hostages were released with 148 flown to Paris leaving ninety-four Israeli hostages left and twelve aircrew. The Israeli government instructed the military to release the hostages and a rescue operation was put in place. Israeli soldiers and aircraft were flown to Entebbe on the 4th July 1976 and successfully rescued 102 of the hostages with three being killed. Another had been was murdered (Dora Bloch, 74) in a hospital in Kampala. The current Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, older brother Lieutenant Colonel Yonatan (Yoni) Netanyahu was killed in the raid. Seven hijackers who were present died during the operation. The rescue raid was a success. 7th October 2023 Israeli Hostage Nightmare Hamas has its own guide for kidnapping and hostage taking. The guide is broken down into nine main headings, some, if not all maybe experienced: 1. The collection stages 2. Confinement and control within the location and its vicinity 3. Safety 4. Supply 5. Camouflage and hiding 6. Communication 7. Publicity 8. Negotiations 9. Emergency situations Those who had been taken (Collection Stage) would have suffered from what is known as “shock of capture.” A sudden and aggressive change after a huge traumatic event. Those that had been taken would be at their most vulnerable during this stage. Their mind would not have a chance to put up any defence’s and they would be in a state of shock. These first reactions to their capture would soon fade. This could take minutes or it could take a few hours, it depends on the individual and the type of environment they are in. Let us also bear in mind that there is a vast age difference within the hostages. The first phase any kidnapped victim has to endure is the initial capture. This would include rough handling, beating with fists or a weapon, and a blindfold or hood placed over the head to disorientate and block out some of their senses. Once in a safe area for the kidnappers, the victims would undergo a quick search to remove all of their possessions, most of which would be stolen. (Safety) Yocheved Lifshitz, aged 85 who was later released described the ordeal. “They killed and kidnapped both old and young with no distinction.” She was tied to a motorcycle and driven to Gaza. “As we rode, the motorcycle rider hit me with a wooden pole. They didn’t break my ribs, but it hurt me a lot in that area, making it difficult to breathe. They stole my watch and jewellery.” She was held at Abasan al-Kabira, near Be’eri kibbutz, and at another location she could not identify. “Eventually, we went underground and walked for kilometres in wet tunnels, for two or three hours in a spider web of tunnels. We reached a large hall. We were a group of 25 people, and they separated us according to which kibbutz we were from.” After that, I don’t know where I was taken.” (A feeling of disorientation). Guards fed the prisoners the same type of food they ate. A doctor visited daily and provided medication and treatment, including for a hostage injured in a motorbike crash, she said. “They were very concerned with hygiene and were worried about an outbreak of something. We had toilets which they cleaned every day.” Israeli Hostage Trauma The initial reaction of the new hostage would be confusion because of the sudden impact and unexpected violent nature as to what had just occurred, along with uncertainty as to what happens next. At some point, they would feel anger for allowing themselves to be placed in a vulnerable position. They would be in disbelief at what was happening to them. This falls under the category of “shock of capture” and “dislocation of expectations” (it will never happen to me). All victims will undergo the same or similar feelings. Once the captive is in their new location, one that may be temporary, they would start to be subjected to two types of pressure. One is “self-induced pressure” and the other would be “system induced pressure.” Both types will bring on mental demands and the slow realization that the desolation will start to take effect. John Kirby, spokesman for the National Security Council, said that “no one knew, where they (the hostages) are and in what condition.” Kirby also said, “the White House does not know if they are being kept together, and whether they are being moved around.” This would have been a lesson Iran learned after the 1979 revolution and American hostages were held against their will for 444 days. When they were first captured, they were held in one location. President Carter authorized the American military to rescue the hostages in an operation known as “Operation Eagle Claw.” Regretfully, the operation failed but Iran realized the vulnerability of hostage rescue and moved the hostages so that they were held in smaller groups at different locations. Hamas would have been advised to not hold everyone at the same location. Self-induced pressures are feelings that are brought on by the hostage; their own thoughts feelings and actions. They will go through fear of the unknown. Fear of being killed: Will anyone know they have been taken? Fear of the environment such as hearing doors banging, keys jangling as the prisoner will be wondering if it is their turn to be killed, tortured or beaten. There will be thoughts of escape but, if captured with others, there will be fear of retribution against those who remain behind. A difficult decision to make and, if those who are with them are close friends, it makes matters worse. Later, if held in captivity for a long period with other prisoners, those feeling will also exist. If the hostages were or are being kept underground then this is an option unlikely to happen. If they are a leader or military, then feelings of failure and/or guilt will start to gnaw at them the leader that had led them into that situation in the first place. Although they may not realize it, the chances are that in a lot of cases the operation to kidnap someone has been pre-planned as was the case on the 7th October. They would feel guilty about any mistakes they had made. It would not matter how small or large they seemed, the leader or a single individual would analyse every move that had put them into that situation. There would be mistrust, boredom and loneliness, which play major psychological roles. Depression and despair would set in very quickly as they would not be in control of any of their actions. The captors would ensure that. A need for constant alertness would add to the captive’s distress, as they would attempt to stay one step in front of their captors. System induced pressures are those that are placed upon a captive by their kidnappers. They would ensure that the captive underwent severe discipline and would be punished for the slightest thing. This would be part of a conditioning phase, so the captive becomes reliant on those who are holding them prisoner. Their diet would be small and disgusting and, if lucky, be fed on scraps. The guards would get the better food and whatever was left, if any, would be fed to the prisoner. The effect would be starvation and illness, which would break down the will of the captive and also result in draconian weight loss. Within the Gaza Strip where everything has been cut off then it would be safe to imagine that food and drink would be rationed. Hamas, although stated that they have thought of every eventuality it’s doubtful that they would have stored sufficient food and water as no one would have known how long the captivity of the Hamas hostages would be. When Hamas planned and executed the attack on Israel, they would have known that there would have been a humanitarian problem. Confinement and enforced idleness would play a huge psychological factor, coupled with everything else that would leave the prisoner feeling as though they are losing the will to live. They would suffer from lack of sleep due to hunger pains and damp conditions, desolation and torment of the mind — having no news of the outside world and no knowledge of what is being done to secure their release. A very sensitive issue is rape, both male and female. Female captives have a tendency to accept that this will happen to them, but males do not give it a second thought but in this day and age it is more than a possibility. If held in a collective group, it is not the act that tends to upset the unfortunate victim but how they are treated by fellow prisoners when they return. There would be no hostage/captor bonding, as the terrorists would treat their prisoner like an animal, which detracts them from being looked upon as human beings. There would be pressure on the captors, especially if they keep up with the press. With the sound of bombs being dropped by aircraft or being fired by Israeli artillery even deep underground the sound would be heard and if close the vibrations would be felt from the detonation on impact. The captures would be in a similar position to their hostages. Not knowing if they will be killed by shells or bombs or found, killed or captured by Israeli soldiers at some point. The problem with this type of hostage taker is that should there be an attempt to rescue them there is no guaranteed good outcome. If the kidnappers are threatened, it is feasible that they may kill hostages prior to fleeing. It is possible that phases of the Stockholm Syndrome may occur. There are a few factors necessary for this bond to develop to your advantage. · Hostages and captors are held together. · Both captors and hostages share the same conditions. · Must not outwardly disagree with the captor’s viewpoints. · Share a common Bond. For this to happen the hostage must: · Pretend to like their captors. No matter what you actually feel towards them, you must show that you want to be their friend. You must overtly go about trying to befriend them. You must build up some kind of rapport with them. · Encourage your captors to like you. Use your friendliness to get them to like you as well. Make it a two-way thing. Video’s Hostages are often asked to make a video or talk on the radio, this can be a double-edged sword. On the one hand it shows that the hostage is still alive at the time of recording but it can also be used for propaganda purposes. Hamas aired the first video of captives on the 16th October 2023. It was a female showing footage of her receiving treatment for an arm injury. This was 10 days after the attack on Israel so Israeli authorities would have been unsure when the injury had happened. The woman spoke Hebrew and said that she was from central Israel and appeals for her release. The video would have been reassurance to the family for up to that point she was alive. The hostage was later identified as 21-year-old, Mia Schem. She told the camera that she was operated on for three hours and that “I’m being cared for, I’m getting medications. I’m only asking to be returned home as soon as possible, to my family, to my parents, to my siblings. Please get me out of here as soon as possible.” It was thought she had been singled out because she was a dual French-Israeli citizen. This would put pressure on the French and Israeli governments to stop the war against Hamas so that the hostages could be set free. Hamas was also keen to show the world that it had a humanitarian side to it. This would have been an attempt to counter the horrific murders from the 7th October 2023. The next video to be aired was on the 30th October 2023 after the Israeli military had now gone into the Gaza Strip on what appeared to be a its next phase of grappling with Hamas. The video clip was approximately 76 seconds long and titled, “Zionist detainees.” Zionists is a term that the Islamic Republic of Iran uses constantly when talking about Israel or Israeli’s. At first it was difficult to identify the three females in the clip. Sitting on plastic chairs against a white tile wall, one of the women urges Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree a prisoner exchange for the release of all captives. Speaking in Hebrew, she becomes very agitated and starts shouting, almost screaming by the end, as the other two sitting either side of her remain silent. Later the three females were identified as Yelena Trupanob, Danielle Aloni and Rimon Kirsht. Aloni was identified as the speaker. Aloni addressing an angry message to the Israeli prime minister. Accusing Netanyahu of failing to protect Israeli citizens during the deadly Hamas attack and failing to get them back home, she called for an agreement to secure their release in exchange for Palestinian prisoners. “You were supposed to free all of us. You committed to free us all. But instead, we are carrying your political, security, military, diplomatic failure,” she said. This statement would have worked well for Hamas propaganda causes attempting to put pressure on the Israeli prime minister and would once again reassure the families of the ladies that at the time of recording they were still alive. There were most likely have been key words that she would have been coerced into saying. All it takes is one disgruntled hostage and they would be easily led into either making a confession or encouraged to rant on film for those who are holding them. Propaganda Propaganda is based on lies and disinformation. Hamas and the Islamic Republic of Iran have and are known to utilize propaganda as a means to shape public opinion and advance their political agendas. Propaganda by Hamas is primarily by use of foreign media which is an important tool in its arsenal as they will report anything and everything giving Hamas a huge beneficial leverage. Manipulating the press and media works well for Hamas’s as the world forgets about the atrocities that they caused which started this conflict and concentrates on the plight of the Palestinians which they would include Hamas in. Their hate for Israel and by use of cruel psychological propaganda attempting to influence any population to apply pressure on governments to instruct Israel to hold a ceasefire and release hostages. This would be seen in the ‘Days of Rage’ that Hamas and Iran are encouraging around the globe. Hamas would gain a reward of having Israel agree to a ceasefire. Two current examples are: On the 13th October 2003 Hamas said that thirteen hostages had been killed blaming their deaths on strikes on Gaza. Referring to claims that hostages have been killed in Israeli strikes, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said “There are many statements from Hamas, we will only report reliable information.” On the 26th October 2023 Hamas announced that Israeli strikes on Gaza have killed almost 50 of the hostages its militants seized in bloody cross-border attacks. The claim, like the other cannot be verified but Hamas military wing “Al-Qassam Brigades estimates that the number of Zionist prisoners who were killed in the Gaza Strip as a result of Zionist strikes and massacres has reached almost 50” Fars News (managed by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)) released news that two hostages had been released. Judith Raanan and her daughter Natalie Raanan who were taken illegally were both American. Fars News claimed that Hamas had released them “for humanitarian reasons.” Heir release was put down too many days of talks between the Qatari government and Hamas. The choice of American may be put down to the United States bringing in more military assets into the Region. Palestinian Hostages The Israeli’s along with other nationalities are not the only ones being held hostage and risk being killed. Although the scenario is different, the ordinary Palestinian citizens were being held at gunpoint by the very people they had elected to govern them. On the 13th October 2023 the German Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said that “Hamas has taken the entire population of Gaza hostage.” She was correct as reports came out of Hamas stopping people from leaving the city which were published in open-source news outlets. In some cases Hamas placed large vehicles and cars across roads to stop Palestinians from leaving. Reuters on the 13th October 2023 reported, “Mosques broadcast messages telling Gaza Strip residents to stay put on Friday (13 Oct 23), in defiance of an Israeli military call for more than a million civilians to move south within 24 hours in the build-up to its expected ground offensive.” IDF spokesman Lt Col Jonathan Conricus said: 'Hamas is actively preventing civilians from leaving to go to the south. The Israeli Defence Force had warned those Palestinians, not Hamas, who lived in the north of the Gaza Strip to move south where it was safer. Hamas’s response was shocking. In response, Hamas told residents to stay in their homes: “Do not follow the propaganda evacuation instructions.” The group is known to try and force residents to ignore such notices given by the military. IDF spokesman Admiral Hagari said Hamas was responsible for any harm to civilians who do not evacuate. He added, “The Palestinian civilians in Gaza are not our enemies.” “We don’t assess them as such, and we don’t target them as such. We are trying to do the right thing.” The Israeli Defence Force has accused Hamas of using its own people as human shields to prevent Israeli forces from attacking areas where Hamas operates in its attack on Israel. Russia and Hamas Russia has been hosting high-ranking members of Hamas in Moscow and has defended its decision to do so, saying it is important to maintain ties with both sides in the Israel-Hamas conflict. The article also states that Russia has become a close ally of Iran and has ties to Hamas, but there is no evidence of Moscow’s direct involvement in Hamas’s attack on Israel. According to Al Jazeera, Putin may be interested in the new conflict between Israel and Hamas spreading all over the Middle East, distracting the West and undermining aid to Ukraine. Currently there is a small glitch in the relationship between Hamas and Russia. Hostages, in particular Russian hostages held by Hamas. Hamas’s master, the Islamic Republic of Iran, arrested a Russian journalist Yulia Yuzikon on the 4th October 2019 and was charged with cooperating with Israeli intelligence. Russia's foreign ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador regarding Yuzik's detention. Russian journalist Yulia Yuzik, was not charged with spying and was changed to a visa violation and her case was placed under a “quick review” it was announced on the 7th October 2019 three days later. Then six days after her arrest she was freed by the Iranian authorities. “As a result of joint efforts of the Russian Foreign Ministry and the Russian Embassy in Tehran, the Iranian side made a decision on the release of Russian citizen Yulia Yuzik.,” it was announced. Iran and Russia have had close relations since the start of the Syrian revolution in 2011, as they both heavily support the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. Present Day A delegation from Hamas led by Hamas' international relations chief Moussa Abu Marzouk visited Moscow on the 26th October 2023 for talks on the release of foreign hostages including Russian citizens from the enclave. The Russian Embassy reportedly said that 16 Russian citizens were killed as a result of Hamas' attack on Israel, while another eight are missing. Iran also had a representative Deputy Foreign Minister Ali Bagheri Kani who was also visiting. Hamas officials in Moscow said they viewed all their hostages as Israelis. Al-Arabiya News wrote on the 28th October 2023 that “Hamas is trying to locate eight Russian-Israeli dual citizens among nearly 230 taken hostage during the Palestinian militants’ attack on Israel after Moscow’s request to free them, Russian news agencies reported Saturday.” It also reported, “From the Russian side, via the foreign ministry, we received a list of citizens that have dual citizenship,” senior Hamas representative Moussa Abu Marzook was cited as saying by the RIA Novosti news agency. “We are looking for those people... It is hard but we are looking. And when we find them, we will let them go.” “We are very attentive to this list and will process it carefully because we consider Russia to be a closest friend,” he said.” Not all hostages are classified as Israeli then! Prisoner Exchange Prisoner exchange. The last Israeli prisoner to be exchanged was Gilad Shalit who on the 25th June 2006, was captured by Hamas in a cross-border raid using tunnels under the Israeli border. Hamas held him captive for over five years until his release on 18th October 2011 as part of a prisoner exchange deal. The deal would see the release 1,027 Palestinian prisoners in a staggered move over a period of months. Palestinian prisoners, including, Hamas said, more than 300 serving life terms for violent attacks, stoking security concerns in Israel. The release of 6,000 Palestinian prisoners for those captured on the 7th October 2023 would mean that they would probably re-enter the Hamas terrorist network and the whole war process would probably start all over again in the future. Hamas’s military wing, the Izz ad-Din al-Qassam Brigades, spokesman Abu Obeida, on the 9th October 2023 said that they would kill a civilian hostage every time Israel’s military hit Gaza without warning. A clear threat to have the Israeli’s stop their bombardment of the city. “We announce that every targeting of our people who are safe in their homes without warning, we will regretfully meet with the execution of our enemy’s civilian hostages,” Obeida said. Then in the Tehran Times (which claims it is not a state-owned newspaper, rather it must be the voice of the oppressed people in the world), stated that “an official belonging to Hamas told British media that the Israeli hostages taken by the group were being treated in a “humane way,” and they would not be harmed. Conclusion Hamas clearly knew what it was doing on the 7th October 2023 when it entered Israel. It was to kill and capture with no thought as to who it would be but with the intent of causing as much disruption as possible. Their aim to take hostages of different genders and ages was to have them used as human shields, for bargaining purposes possibly to have a ceasefire when things became a little rough for Hamas and they saw themselves as being on the losing side, propaganda and/or the release of some 6,000 prisoners held in Israeli jails. It maybe for all those reasons cited. The thought of releasing a further six thousand Hamas terrorists would not be a path the Israelis would want to follow. Whatever the reason for their capture this has certainly plunged the Israelis and their government into an even worse hostage scenario than that of Munich or Entebbe. As the hostage situation unfolds more regarding those kidnapped will no doubt be released. If it is true that those that have allegedly been killed by Israeli military action then hopefully when they recover the deceased a post-mortem will tell its own story. But for now, the world waits because that is what the hostage game is. Attempting to gain the upper hand or seeing what can be achieved without more loss of life. Paul Ashley (31 Oct 23) On the 12 Oct 23 in the Tehran Times the Iranian Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, stated, that nobody seeks Iran’s “permission to open a new front” against Israel, saying everything is “dependent” on the Zionist regime’s moves. Iran constantly refers to the Israelis as Zionists. He went on to say, “Officials of certain countries in contact with us ask about a possible opening of new (war) fronts in the region. We tell them that our clear-cut response about future possibilities is that everything is dependent on the moves of the Zionist regime in Gaza,” Iran’s foreign minister remarked. There is a speculation that the powerful Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement, resistance forces in Iraq known as Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), and Ansarallah forces in Yemen may enter the war against Israel if the Tel Aviv continues to massacre the Palestinian people indiscriminately in the Gaza Strip.
Israels bombardment on Hamas has come under strict scrutiny. The Israeli government have given Palestinians opportunities to leave the north of the Gaza Strip and move south out of harms way. “The Palestinian civilians in Gaza are not our enemies,” an Israeli military spokesman, John Conricus, said. “We don’t assess them as such, and we don’t target them as such. We are trying to do the right thing.” This comment stresses that Israel is there to fight Hamas not the Palestinians. Hamas had other ideas and urged ordinary Palestinians to stay in their homes. Hamas needs human shields. As a ruling body inside the Gaza Strip, they have done little to help the population living there. Rather than spend funds on improving the life of the Palestinians they have spent it on cement. Shoring up tunnels to be used to attack Israel takes money. A British newspaper wrote the underground network in Gaza now branches dozens of miles through the Gaza Strip reaching the towns of Khan Younis, Jabalia, and the Shati refugee camp. They also stretch into Israel. Hamas whose terrorist ideology is to destroy Israel does not take into account the population. The news outlet continued, the tunnels, which are believed to have cost between $30 million (£21.3 million) and $90 million (£63.9 million) to build, are extremely difficult to detect from the air. Some of the three dozen tunnels built since the end of the 2014 Israel-Gaza conflict are estimated to have cost $3 million (£2.13 million). The tunnels are reinforced with concrete to protect them from airstrikes and from caving in. The vicious cycle of attacking Israel through tunnels, having them destroyed and rebuilding them does not come from what Gaza exports, its believed that Iran funds Hamas with $100 million each year. The money comes from funds that are to improve life for the Palestinians. Human shields would be used in order to stop Israel from retaliating. Another method would be when the ground war starts the deaths of those who chose not to go south would be used to apply pressure on the international community to decry Israels ground war. The pressure would be used to make Israel halt its campaign of putting a stop to Hamas once and for all. Hamas are using its own population to carry through its ideology of destroying Israel. Nothing more. While Israel’s response will tragically include the loss of innocent Palestinian lives, this will be the result of Hamas using their homes and hospitals as launching pads, while not providing bomb shelters or other means of protection. Stated the Jerusalem Post. German foreign minister Annalena Baerbock said, “Hamas is now barricading itself behind more innocent people and is using them as a shield in Gaza.” She continued, “Hamas has taken the entire population of Gaza hostage,” also adding, “Their tunnels, their weapons depots and command centres are deliberately located in residential buildings, supermarkets and universities. Maybe even in hospitals.” The Palestinian envoy to the United Nations described Israels use of munitions in the Gaza Strip as “nothing less than genocidal.” Iran calls the siege a war crime and urged the United Nations to stop what they deem as ‘atrocities’ and it was their responsibly “to end the Zionist regime’s heinous crimes and acts of aggression against Palestinian people.” Iran has not denounced the indiscriminate attack on Israel nor the taking of hostages instead they refer to the attack as “self-defence” by the Palestinians. Iran decries war crimes and those conducting the crimes against the ‘Palestinian people’ stating they will be brought to account. It is in the wording. Iran does not use the term Hamas but Palestinian. Likewise, it does not refer to them as terrorists or freedom fighters. They refer to such groups such as Hamas. Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah and others as ‘resistance fighters’ or the ‘axis of resistance.’ Iran funds them all. Possible ‘New Front’ In September 2021 Al Arabiya published a report that originated in Iran whereby they boasted of having six armies. “A prominent Iranian military commander said that his country has “six armies outside its borders that work for it.” Gholam Ali Rashid, the commander of what is known as “the headquarters of Khatam al-Anbiya”, said in statements carried by the Iranian Mehr Agency, that Qassem Soleimani, the former commander of the Quds Force, announced, three months before his death, that he had organized six armies outside Iranian territory. He added that Soleimani was supported by the leadership of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards and the General Staff of the Army. He added that these armies have ideological tendencies, live outside Iran, and their mission is to defend Tehran against any attack, according to his claim. In his statements, he also said that these armies include the Lebanese Hezbollah, the Hamas and Jihad movements, the regime forces in Syria, the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces, and the Houthi militia in Yemen, stressing that these forces represent a deterrent force for Iran. “Although the report states ‘for the protection of Iran’ it does not say that they could be used in a different modus operandi. Hadi Al-Amiri on the 10 Oct 23, a powerful Iraqi politician close to Iran and a key figure in the cross-party alliance backing Iraq’s government, has threatened to target US interests if Washington intervenes to support Israel in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Amiri leads the Badr Organization, a Shi’ite political group supported by Iran that makes up a big part of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), the state paramilitary organization that contains many Iran-backed factions. “If they intervene, we would intervene...if the Americans intervened openly in this conflict...we will consider all American targets legitimate … and we will not hesitate to target it,” On the same day that Hadi Al-Amiri made his statement senior Iraqi and Yemeni leaders aligned with Iran and in charge of heavily armed groups have threatened to target US interests if Washington intervenes to support Israel in its conflict with Hamas in Gaza. Hezbollah has not as yet dedicated itself to joining in the fight against Israel. The Lebanese government is weak and is separate to Hezbollah who control the south of Lebanon. But on the 9 Oct 23 Al-Arabiya reported that Iran was ‘urging’ Hezbollah to prepare for conflict. Hezbollah has been cautiously firing mortars and rockets into Israel but nothing on a large scale. This could be for two reasons. Firstly, to show support for Hamas, secondly to test the Israeli reactions. Israel would have to deploy troops and assets in that area should Hezbollah escalate its intentions and to counter these attacks. Its possible that should the attacks become more severe the Americans would offer assistance to israel. Hezbollah deputy chief Naim Qassem stated on the 13 Oct 23 “that the group would not be swayed by calls for it to stay on the sidelines of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, saying the party was “fully ready” to contribute to the fighting.” “The behind-the-scenes calls with us by great powers, Arab countries, envoys of the United Nations, directly and indirectly telling us not to interfere will have no effect,” he told supporters gathered in the southern Beirut suburb. Tasmin News (semi-official news agency in Iran associated with the IRGC) on the 14 Oct 23 reported that “Secretary General of the Lebanese Hezbollah resistance movement Seyed Hassan Nasrallah conveyed to Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian the robust state of the resistance and its preparedness for any scenarios regarding recent developments in Palestine.” “Hezbollah knows its duties perfectly well. We are prepared and ready, fully ready, and we are following developments moment by moment,” Qassem said. Iran and other proxies that they use have been warned by the United States not to become involved. The United States and other countries in the Region do not want to the conflict to escalate. Iran has other ideas and its proxies also appear to have other thoughts. Iran warned on the 14 Oct 23 that if Israel’s “war crimes and genocide” are not halted immediately, “the situation could spiral out of control & ricochet far-reaching consequences,” Tehran’s mission to the United Nations in New York posted on X. The Tehran Times reported that Amir Abdollahian also met with some senior Hamas and Islamic Jihad officials in Beirut as he continued his visit to Lebanon recently. They discussed the latest developments in Palestine. The Palestinian officials noted that Operation Al-Aqsa Storm was a natural reaction of the Palestinian nation’s resistance to the daily and continuous crimes of the Zionist regime, specifically the extremist cabinet of Netanyahu against Palestinians and the regime’s frequent desecration of the Al-Aqsa Mosque. They also said despite the war crimes by the usurping Zionist regime against the oppressed people of Gaza, resistance groups have stood up strongly against the regime’s aggression, with their morale, motivation and capability being high as they press ahead down the path of resistance. Amir Abdollahian, for his part, said the Palestinian people have an inalienable right to resistance against occupation. He added that just as some Western officials have admitted the Al-Aqsa Storm proved that Palestine is alive and despite some claims the Palestinian issue will not slip into oblivion due to normalization deals between some countries and the Zionist regime. Clear reference to the Abrahams Accord and the talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia. United States President Joe Biden said on the 7 Oct 23 the United States was ready to offer “all appropriate means of support” to Israel after an attack from Hamas and warned “any other party hostile to Israel” not to seek advantage. The following day in a televised speech, Biden issued a blunt warning. “Israel has a right to defend itself and its people — full stop,” he said. “Let me say this as clearly as I can. This is not a moment for any party hostile to Israel to exploit these attacks to seek advantage. The world is watching.” Now we have a chicken and egg syndrome. Which will come first. Should Hezbollah, or any other Iranian proxy decide that when Israel commences its ground war and Hamas become the losers will Hezbollah decide to strike therefore opening up a second front? Or through intelligence gained that an Iranian proxy decides to attack Israel and the United States stops the attack will others then use that as an excuse to join the conflict? Is there a pre-arranged event that will spark a regional war? Indications are that there is a real time possibility of a second front opening. Iran possibly thinks it is in a position to be the grand master of manipulation. It has numerous proxies at hand to move as chess pieces across the Middle East chess board and strong allies in Russia and China. Iran will be clever. There will be no paper or communication trial as every order will have been carried out by word of mouth or through a courier. Osama Bin Laden used couriers to relay his directions and not by modern communication methods as he feared being caught by the United States using tracking methods to find where he was hidden. During the attacks on Saudi Arabia by the Iranian backed Houthi’s, Iran would constantly deny that they were behind the attacks. Just before diplomatic relations were restored between the two countries the missiles and drones launched into Saudi Arabia stopped. Nikki Halley the United States ambassador at the time to the United Nations gave proof that the aerial bombardment against the Saudi’s were carried out by Iranian supplied and manufactured drones. The Iranians denied that they belonged to them and that anyone can put markings on a drone in Farsi and claim they came from Iran. The war in Ukraine instigated by Russia has seen numerous drones used in the conflict. There is a track record of Russia using drones supplied by Iran. Iran denies that they are their weapons. Iran learnt from the accusations aimed at them by the Americans regarding how easy it was to supply evidence that Iran can and do supply drones to its allies. This time they requested proof by demanding the Ukraine, America and other nations accusing them of supplying the drones for documentation when they were supplied to Russia. Iran knows that they will not find any such transactions. The point is they learnt from a past mistake. The current conflict between Hamas and Israel may well turn this into a Middle East nightmare. Reports of attempting to stop it overflowing into other countries by the United States and its Arab allies are constantly ongoing. In the case of Hamas where Iran denies any involvement meetings would have taken place but no paper trail by way of communications would be used. A total comms blackout. Everything done by way of word of mouth from one party to another or the use of couriers. This attack would have been too big to chance anything getting out prematurely. Iran’s main news outlets continuously talk about others getting involved. The Iranian foreign minister said any action by Hezbollah would amount to an earthquake for the Zionist regime and “the responsibility for any expansion of war in the region lies with the Zionist regime.” No matter how the conflict between Hamas and Israel ends, Iran will walk away claiming that they had nothing to do with the attack. One of their favourite sayings is 'baseless'. Any claims made that Iran was behind the 7 Oct 23 attack will be as they say, "baseless." What they have not thought about is that although Osama Bin laden used couriers, he still got caught. The planning of Hamas’s invasion of Israel was probably in the pipe line for some time, what it needed was an intention and motive to initiate the attack. Some have wondered for some time how Iran could derail the talks between Israel and Saudi Arabia which had been showing signs of progress. With reports that an agreement was close Iran needed a diversion in order to derail the process. The planning of the attack and the launch would need the go ahead from someone, not Hamas, but a master. An Iranian master, someone with a higher authority possibly the Supreme Leader or head of the IRGC-QF.
The Islamic Republic of Iran does not have a policy whereby it confronts its foes; it allows others to do this for them. The Supreme Leader, It is worth remembering that a lot of Sunni Islam countries are on the side of the Palestinian cause. This attack may also be an attempt to break the Abrahams Accord which Iran also opposes. If the Saudis and Israel sign an agreement it would isolate Iran from one of its common goals and that is to destroy Israel. Saudi Arabia so far has kept a tight lid on the conflict and its views, the only statement so far is by the Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan who has said that his country, “condemns targeting of civilians in Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” The whole tactic has been a clever well thought out plan, coordinated and operated with an aim of destroying Israel as per the prophecies in the Iranian press for over six months and the Iranian boast of a new world order. On numerous occasions, high profile figures in the Iranian military have stated that the fall o Iran was imminent. The attack on Israel by Hamas may seem extreme but Iran does not concern itself with these details as it suits its revolutionary founder, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini revolutionary ideology requirements which is to destroy Israel. Hamas on its own could never came up with a plan as strong as this as well as all the logistics that would have to be in place in order to conduct an assault on Israel on the scale it has shown. In the past they have been content to allow the PIJ to fire rockets and shoot at Israel in its attempt to fight against Israel. There is more at stake here than just the Palestinian cause. A senior US official in a conference call has said that ‘they currently do not see any hands of Iran being involved and will look into it’. It appears by the comment that they have their suspicions. The United States President has also warned those who are outside not to think about getting involved, it was a strong and stern warning. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said part of the motivation for Hamas’ latest attack on Israel may have been disrupting a potential normalizing of Israel-Saudi Arabia ties All Iran has done is gloat, party and claim that Israel is about to fall because of its treatment of the Palestinians and the current infighting which also may have given “now, the time is right” attitude. Like everything, timing is everything. Iran does not want to lose its new found friend Saudi Arabia as Iran has been making plans on both their behalf for the future of the region. That cannot be derailed at any cost. Iran is also using this opportunity and attempt to gain support by claiming Israel is responsible for regional instability. This accusation is not new, but this is an ideal opportunity to bring to the fore and point it out and challenge in order to gain more support against Israel. The Iranian propaganda machines. On the 9 Oct 23 the Wall Street Journal wrote that Iran had assisted in the planning of the attack since Aug 23, an accusation Iran denies. Fars News Agency on the Denial, blame moved elsewhere then divert back to Israel. There is also the UN part of the article heading to grasp the attention of the reader and to give it credibility. A common Iranian tactic especially when it comes to denying events. In order to discredit Israel and turn the Muslim world against Israel they had to include an Islamic facture hence why the name was picked as operation “Al-Aqsa Storm.” Hamas, along with others have accused Israel of desecrating the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound even creating incidents to draw the IDF in and claim propaganda. It brings in the Muslim world as it’s an Islamic holy name and site. Iran has and does attempt to amalgamate the Islamic world (Sunni and Shia) against Israel. What better way than to have Israel retaliate to a major incursion and by enabling them to use extreme force. Iran and Hamas are close partners. Where did Hamas get the money, logistics, weapons and ammunition in such large quantities? Turkey managed to find 16 tons of logistics early in the year. You don’t put that type of quantity in the boot of a car to smuggle through a checkpoint. The other question to ask regarding this point is how much had been smuggled in before and after that and not been found? There has to be a smuggling network in place that Iran can smuggle everything that is required for a large-scale attack. Hamas which is a designated terrorist organisation is limited as to where it obtains its financial aid. However, some of the ways Hamas receives its funding is by; state sponsors, charitable organisations, fundraising, extortion and taxes, tunnel trade, criminal activities, local and external donors. Its exports are few but rely on agriculture and fishing, small scale manufacturing and very little else. Certainly not sufficient to finance a major conflict. Specifics of financial aid provided by Iran to Hamas in Gaza are often not disclosed publicly, as these transactions typically occur covertly. However, it has been alleged by various sources that Iran has provided financial support to Hamas over the years. This support may include: direct funding, financial assistance to families of fighters and funding social services. There have been allegations that Iran provides various forms of military support to Hamas, this support is thought to include: Training and technical assistance, weapons and ammunition and political support. A smuggling route sometimes starts in Iran, Yemen and the Sudan into the Gaza Strip Should other terrorist groups such as Hezbollah become involved then this will escalate the conflict from outside of Israel and Hamas. Hezbollah has fired several rockets at the Israeli Shebaa Farm, Israel retaliated and nothing more occurred, although Hezbollah stated that this was to show Hamas it stood with them. If Hezbollah were to join then it would be a free for all as there would be no command-and-control structure between the two factions and would be easily defeated without some form of hierarchal leadership. According to Al-Arabiya News who ran a report stating, “Iran is urging Lebanon’s Hezbollah to prepare for potential conflict with Israel, the Times of Israel cited a senior Israeli government source as saying. he source also said that Israel has gathered intelligence suggesting Iran influenced Hamas in carrying out its recent attack on Israel. However, should Hezbollah become involved the Americans may become drawn in as the IDF would be fighting on two fronts. This would also mean that the conflict would not stay in one area of the Middle East but escalate into other countries. This attack may well back fire on Iran, if it is responsible. Israel will be more than ever wanting a peace settlement with the Saudi’s which will go against everything Iran has strived for by sanctioning Hamas to attack Israel. Iran is the puppet master; the puppets are the proxies. The Iranian President, Seyed Ebrahim Raisi, has been holding phone calls with leaders of what Iran calls Resistance Movements over the Palestinians’ military operation. The most difficult stage in all of this will be the release of those who have been captured and held hostage, not all are Israeli’s, some are different nationalities and Americans. The Biden Administration has recently recovered from the release of five Americans from Iran without having to negotiate for hostages held by an Iran-backed terrorist group. In October 2011 it was announced that a prisoner swap had been agreed between Israel and Palestinian militants who had kidnapped an Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit after tunnelling into Israel from Gaza. The price for the release of one soldier was freedom for 1,027 Palestinian prisoners, including, Hamas said, more than 300 serving life terms for violent attacks. The serving Prime Minister at the time was Benjamin Netanyahu. Hamas with the assistance of Iran who are past masters as hostage negotiations will make this very difficult for Israel and other nations. It’s no secret that Iran blames Israel as one of the perpetrators for its woes at home. Israel gets the blame for many things. One was the demonstrations that ran after the death of Mahsa Amini the Kurdish female murdered by the Iranian morality police thugs. Iran has many problems at the moment with above 50% inflation and the population finding it difficult to put the staple food on the table. Different employment factions wanting a pay rise and better conditions as sanctions against Iran bite. The attack on Israel will be seen as a way in which the theocratic government of Iran attempts unite the country in the hope that the financial spotlight will be taken away from the Tehran government and placed on the Palestinian fight against the Israelis. In Conclusion Although there is no current direct evidence that the Islamic Republic of Iran is involved with the Palestinian attack on Israel, but there is circumstantial evidence present that Iran does have an involvement. It’s not the Palestinians that will gain from any of this but their masters who are miles away in Iran. Those Palestinians who die in the fighting leave behind families of loved ones who will not be coming home or able to earn a wage to place food on the table or play with their children. The Israeli’s who will have died fighting will also face a similar fate in that aspect. The winners will be the Iranians. Sat in West Asia away from the conflict. No one currently knows regarding the thoughts of Saudi Arabia on the conflict, nor how they will react after the struggle has finished. Saudi Arabia wants to assist the Palestinians by being in talks with Israel to bring a better life and closure to a long problem. There will be a lot of fallout from this war. Hostage negotiations, Israel’s security apparatus and leadership. Relations with Iran should the finger of blame be proven. Although Iran is extremely clever when it comes to hiding away from the facts but the truth is, they are not as smart as they think they are and somewhere there will be a direct link. Iran may have had the idea of attempting to make the prospects better for Gaza and its inhabitants but in reality, they will have made it worse. Iran accuses Israel of being the major problem in the Middle East whereas in truth there’s only one problem in the Middle East and that is from a country that is situated in West Asia and interfering in the affairs of the Middle Eastern countries claiming it’s the saviour of the Muslim faith. Remove Iran from the Region will not solve every problem in that part of the world but it will certainly go a long way in bringing peace and stability without outside interference. The world needs to wake up and realise that the Islamic Republic of Iran is not a friend, a benign neighbour, but a deadly, corrupt regime whose sole purpose is to ensure the world follows its ideology no matter how long it takes or what it has to do to achieve it. The signing of the agreement between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia on the 10 Mar 23 after seven years of severed relations was welcomed by many, thanks to the intervention of China and assistance of Oman and Iraq. The future could be bright should Iran play its part in the agreement. This will be not the end of the problems in the Middle East. Iran in the past has boasted that it is the greatest supporter and provider of security for the Region. Several questions have evolved. Firstly, is the Iran-Saudi deal a way of Iran disengaging in Yemen without losing face? Due to sanctions imposed on Iran the money that it spent on ‘supporting’ the Yemeni Houthi’s has not achieved anything whereas the finances could be channelled to fund Iran’s other proxies. At the moment Iran has agreed to stop arming the Houthi’s. The signs are according to the Iranian Tasnimne news that Iran supports efforts for a peace plan. Although this has been said before only for the U.S., Saudi or the British Navy to stop a Dhow with smuggled weapons heading for Yemen. The possibility of a treaty between the factions in Yemen will be dependent on support. A member of the Houthis’ political wing Abdulwahab al-Mahbashi said on the 12 Mar 23 that the agreement has “nothing to do with them as they are not ‘subordinate’ to Tehran.” The Saudi's may have security on its side but will Iran still have the influence? Secondly, there is still Tehran’s influence, support and arming of the Palestinian enclaves, Syria and Hezbollah. Security in the region is a lot more complicated than just the Islamic Republic of Iran and Saudi Arabia agreeing to respect one another and exchanging ambassadors. Thirdly, the agreement does not include the Iranian 'peaceful' nuclear program which is enriching uranium at a level well above the requirement for a passive program. In order to pursue Iranian ideology of dominance it needs to make sacrifices to achieve its long game. Tehran may believe that when the British left the Region in the 1960’s and security in the Middle East was assigned to Riyadh and Tehran that they will again restart that security process. But the agreement was with Iran and Saudi Arabia, not the Islamic Republic of Iran, different ideologies. Iran is already starting to boast that it has a security deal with Iraq, is about to swap ambassadors with Bahrain who also ceased relations with Iran in 2016 and that the building of bridges with the UAE. In the long run this may be an attempt by Iran to divide the nations and support them by attempting to place a wedge between Arabian countries, the United States and Israel’s Abraham Accord. China played a significant role in assisting with the détente between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The final question; if it fails where would that leave China and the Islamic Republic of Iran?
The recent UAV attack on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s military facility at Isfahan on the 28 Jan 23 is giving the Iranians a chance to mock whoever conducted the attack. Several American news outlets have cited Israel for the operation but as usual the Israelis have not, nor are they likely to, comment on the incident. The Iranian Tehran Times wrote that the episode was another “unsuccessful attack” and that Israel had “failed to achieve its goals.” They quoted an unnamed Israel media source that allegedly stated, “Israeli media portrayed the attack as successful, something that stands in stark contrast to the reality on the ground.” The Islamic State claim that the attack allegedly caused minor damage, but this statement has not been verified by any outside source. The news outlet went on to say that the Americans were involved even though the United States distanced itself from the incident. The Iranians included them when describing “Israel’s failed adventure.” However, was the attack a failed venture? If Israel did carry out the latest drone attack on Israfan then this was a clever warning to Iran. To coordinate and fly three UAVs from Israel to the near centre of Iran is an exceptional achievement and sends a message to the Iranians. If it was Israel then not only can they fly their drones across the possible airspaces of Jordon, Saudi Arabia and Iraq undetected, the drones were also flown across the Arabian Gulf into Iranian airspace and onto their target. Iranian propaganda outlets state that at least one drone was destroyed in the attack, meaning two others got through and made it to the target before being terminated. A distance of approximately 1,586 Km or 986 miles with a flight time for a commercial aircraft of 2 hours and 22 minutes. Quite an achievement when you consider the distance and weather conditions that the drones flew. This should be quite a shock to the Iranians who boast of having the best drone service in the world. The alleged Israeli operation says a great deal about the Iranian anti-aircraft defence systems which should have detected the UAV presence as soon as the drones neared the airspace of Iran. This could have been another goal, to test the Iranian air radar. Iranian media would have you believe that Israel failed in its goals whatever they were. The question is, did they?
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"The Europeans think that the Iranian people and the IRGC’s efforts to protect their values is a form of terrorism," (Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Hossein Salami) Iran in a Flat Spin over EU Proposal to Place IRGC on European Terrorist List The French Foreign Ministry said in a statement on the 10 Jan 23 that it had not ruled out terming the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) a terrorist organisation after the Germany Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock tweeted on the 9 Jan 23 that “listing the Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist organization is politically important and makes sense.” Prior to these German and French thoughts, the British government had announced in the early days of 2023 that they were officially going to declare the IRGC a “terrorist group.” At the time the Iranian press-propaganda outlets were more concerned with the anniversary of General Qassem Soleimani who was killed at Baghdad International airport on the 3 Jan 20 than this thought. Security Between the Islamic Republic of Iran and Europe Because of the geographical proximity of Europe and the Islamic Republic of Iran relations between the two have been reasonable over the years. A number of European countries have had a good relationship with the Islamic Republic (formerly Persia) for centuries. The European perspective was greatly enhanced before, during and after the implementation of the JCPOA agreement in 2016. President Trumps withdrawal from the agreement in 2018 and the reimplemented sanctions caused problems for Iran. Iran attempted to split Europe and the United States in order to stop sanctions from being reimposed. Iran’s attempt failed and the United States and Europe sided with one another. The security concerns of the United States, the Middle East and Europe vary considerably due to their global and geographical location along with the threat against each region. The greatest direct threat from Iran is in the Middle East, second is to the United States and its interests in the Region and lastly against Europe. Iran over the years has attempted to create and focus on dialogue with Europe in an attempt to bring the two closer together. The Islamic Republic of Iran Army According to Article 143 of the Iranian Constitution, the task of the Iranian Army is to safeguard the independence and territorial integrity of the country, as well as the order of the Islamic Republic. The army is made up of mainly conscripts but remains loyal to the regime. The ‘Iranian Army remains a main element of Iran’s defence posture’. The army’s leadership claims it has restructured its fighting capabilities and resources in order to fight in conventional as well as asymmetric theatres, the army continues to play an important role in securing borders as well confronting what the regime considers to be a Kurdish insurgency emanating from Iraq as well as a homegrown terrorist threat in the region of Sistan va Baluchistan. The regular army remains Iran’s first line of defence and continues to underwrite the country’s national security, checking both threats from within and outside of the Islamic Republic. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has its origins as an ideological militia but now takes a greater role in nearly all aspects of Iranian politics and society. The IRGC on the European List 2023 Europe has proposed placing the IRGC on a Foreign Terrorist List (FTL) along with other sanctions. Some sanctions by Europe in the past have targeted individuals from the IRGC but not the entire organisation. When placing an individual or individuals on the sanction list it would be easy for those people to get around the restrictions by having someone else do whatever needed to be done, but an entire organisation is different matter and different to get round. Some countries have argued that by placing the IRGC on a list they are targeting a group that is an integral part of the countries defence capabilities. However, as we have seen the Iranian army is the forefront of Iran’s military capabilities with the IRGC, on paper, playing a second choice. Due to historic and current affairs in Iran the European Union are believing to place the entire organisation on the European Terrorist List. It appears that the two main reasons for discussing and implementing the terrorist classification on the IRGC comes in two main motives. Firstly, the IRGC’s involvement in the heavy-handed crackdown on current demonstrations in the country since the death of the Kurdish female Mahsa Amini (16 Sep 22). This involves the lack of human rights and the execution of demonstrators without a fair trial. Secondly with Iran selling of drones (which it denies), technology and the use of military “advisors” to the illegal war which Russia inflicted on the Ukrainian people. Thus, involving Europe. A recent open source outlet has high-lighted Iran’s involvement in attempting to gain access to the Balkans and join the arms race by proposing the selling of drones to what is becoming an area of unrest. The IRGC is the “main military actor involved in the proliferation of Iran’s indigenous drone program” according to the outlet. The Balkans being on the eastern flank of NATO and Europe. Should the IRGC manage to export drones or military assistance to this area it would cause a huge problem for NATO, America and Europe. Iran has no qualms regarding the selling of its military equipment and has recently attempted to court those countries in the Balkans. Currently some western technology has been found in drones supplied by the IRGC. The problem is being addressed. The Islamic Republic of Iran and its News Outlets/Propaganda Outlets Go into a frenzy The Tehran Times, Tasnimne, Fars News Agency along with many other major outlets have all gone into a flat-spin over the European announcement that the EU is proposing to place the IRGC on the Foreign Terrorist list. Tasnimne accused the European Union of Political weakness and being led by the United States and warned of a “fallout” if Europe was to proceed. The United States placed the IRGC on the Foreign Terrorist List in 2019. The Tehran Times stated that if the European Union was to proceed then it would “shoot itself in the foot” but gave no clear explanation as to how this would happen. In another article by the same outlet the speaker of the Iranian Parliament, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, said that Iran would retaliate. The outcome would blow up years of diplomacy with Iran and set Iran and the West on a path of confrontation, (he did not mention Iran siding with Russia). The outlet also stated that it would put the JCPOA revival in jeopardy. The agreement had been placed on the bottom of a very long list due to Iranian demands. Priorities were now Iranian human rights and supplying of drones to the Russians. Fars news agency warned Europe “to avoid repeating past mistakes.” Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) Major General Hossein Salami slammed the European Parliament’s resolution on labelling the IRGC as a foreign terror organization, and further warned the Europeans that they will have to suffer consequences in case of repeating past mistakes. He added that, “The IRGC chief underlined that Europe owes its security to the IRGC, because if it were not for the endeavours made by the IRGC, particularly the IRGC Quds Force and late commander Lt. Gen. Soleimani, the scourge of terrorism created by the US would have engulfed Europeans. "Had it not been for the IRGC’s struggles, the flames of terrorism fuelled by Daesh, an American product, would have spread to Europe and destroyed its security," he underscored. In another statement the IRGC Commander said, "Europe has experienced two world wars but has not learned from its past mistakes and thinks that such resolutions can shake the IRGC." He continued, "The Europeans think that the Iranian people and the IRGC’s efforts to protect their values is a form of terrorism." The Shah declared Iran (Persia) in World War Two as neutral at the beginning of the long conflict. Events later did place Persia/Iran on the side of the axis powers. Iran has also said that it would retaliate against Europe by placing numerous European armies on an Iranian “Terrorist List.” Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf who is himself a former commander of the Guards air force said that Iran “recognize the armies of the European countries... as terrorist groups.” What this would actually achieve is something to wonder about but later in another statement they said that European interests and armies would be shown no differential, meaning European armies would be treated the same as American interests in the Region. Iran announced on the 23 Apr 19 that it had placed the American CENTCOM on a terrorist list. Secretary of State Michael Pompeo on the 9 Apr 19 declared the IRGC and its Quds Force a terrorist organisation. Achieving nothing except attempting to show the people of Iran that it cannot be stepped on without retaliating. Another point to consider is how the IRGC Commander Major General Hossein Salami believes that the Islamic Republic of Iran is responsible for European security when it is well known that Iran is the Worlds sponsor of terrorism. The list is endless of the terrorist incidents that the Iranians have been involved in and not just in Europe, the Middle East but globally. In a closed Iranian parliamentary session on the 22 Jan 23 Abolfazl Amouei, the spokesman for the Parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee said, “On the other hand, we are looking to establish a mechanism in the country for cases of human rights violations. Actions against international law, including killing and genocide, and cases in which Europeans had a history, should be registered and prosecuted in international authorities. These cases are also foreseen in this plan.” They were going to come up with a three point plan as a response to Europe should they designate the IRGC as a terrorist group. The question to be asked here is, “What is Iran afraid of if the IRGC is placed on the European FTL?” Reasons for not placing Iran’s IRGC on a Terrorist List The reasons are few and the argument is one sided. The Islamic State informs its population and the world that the IRGC has and is fighting terrorism. As there is no definitive universal definition of terrorism each country has its own interpretation. In the Iranian definition its anyone who stands in the way of exporting their revolutionary ideas. These are first and foremost who it deems as terrorist enemies: The United States, the United Kingdom, Israel and Saudi Arabia are the main countries who stand against Iran and are deemed by the theocratic government as terrorists. Iran claims that its IRGC was the only country and organisation to fight and defeat the Islamic State who it opposed. Foreign Affairs Minister of Iran Javad Zarif described ISIL as an "ideological sibling" to Al-Qaeda, adding "the so-called Islamic State, is neither Islamic nor a state." Iran designated the group as a terrorist organisation through IRGC-led news outlets. The Iranians have for some time accused the United States of being responsible for the formation of the Islamic State or Da’esh as it is also known. This is purely a propaganda statement. The Islamic State, Da’esh was condemned for human rights abuses and executions. The United States led the Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve (CJTF-OIR) against the Islamic State (Da’esh) and comprised over thirty countries to degrade and destroy the organisation. The Islamic State of Iraq contrary to its statement did not destroy Da’esh alone. Da’esh was a major threat to the Middle East not Europe as Iran depicts. Europe had to assess if the Islamic State represented a direct and imminent threat to the EU, or just a potential risk for the future. Although Europe did not play a prominent role in the eradication of Da’esh it did play a significant role. Iran would do well to look at the reason why the Islamic State was condemned. The Islamic Republic of Iran has hinted it may withdraw itself from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) as a form of retaliation against the European decision. Iran was one of the original 62 signatories (1968) to the NPT which came into effect 1970, by 2020, 190 countries had signed up to the agreement. During the JCPOA renewal talks Iran has attempted to us the NPT agreement to gain its own way, a form of blackmail. Inspection teams from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had found three undeclared nuclear sites with uranium readings. Iran declared no knowledge of the sites, nor anything about the uranium readings or how they got there. The Islamic Republic blamed Israel for sabotaging the sites amongst other theories. Iran has attempted to bully and intimidate Europe, the United States in gaining concessions with the JCPOA agreement. Now it’s the turn of the European parliament, with Iran threatening to remove themselves from the NPT agreement completely if Europe goes ahead with the IRGC designation. The issue between the IRGC being placed on a Foreign Terrorist List and Iran removing itself from the NPT are separate subjects. Iran is attempting to make them one issue as it has done with threats involving the resurrection of the 2016 JCPOA agreement. The Iranians have accused Europe, the U.S. Germany, France, the U.K. even Israel of plotting against Iran and making the subjects of the three sites and the JCPOA as political issues. They have also accused those involved from Europe, the UK and the U.S. as being “Iranophobic.” A term used by Iran when it cannot get what it wants. There are already problems with monitoring the Iranian ‘peaceful’ nuclear program. Iran removed the safe guards form various sites that were linked to the original JCPOA agreement. Now they are using the Iranian nuclear program as a political football in an attempt to have the Europeans to rescind their plan to place the IRGC on a terrorist list. Wrap-Up The Islamic Republic of Iran’s theocratic leadership has been hurt and is lashing out in every direction it can including accusing Europe of falling into a trap set by the Americans and Israel. Numerous military commanders and political leaders have voiced their opinions along with some wild accusations that are not correct. Iran will, and does, push boundaries. They claim under the constitution that the IRGC is an integral part of the of the constitution saying that “According to the constitution, the IRGC is an official institution of Iran”, and this institution should not be declared a terrorist organization by European countries claimed IRGC chief commander General Hossein Salami. He forgets to mention that the IRGC is also the exporter of terrorism to proxy groups, the assassination of Israeli’s abroad and Iranians living in exile around the world. He forgets to mention that the IRGC is the main actor in the proliferation of drones which Iran attempts to gain markets around the world and lately the Balkans. The EU has at long last taken the rightful decision to state that the IRGC is a terrorist organisation putting its decision in line with the United States. The United Kingdom is also considering declaring the IRGC as a terrorist organisation after the execution of the Iran/British dual national Alireza Akbari. His execution was announced on the 14 Jan 23. In the closed session where Abolfazl Amouei mentions digging up human rights violations, he may want to look at the current president of Iran who is wanted for questioning about the killing of thousands in 1998. President Raisi was referred to in one open source outlet as “Iran’s death committee president.” Iran is and has been suffering financially for some time with inflation above 50%. With more sanctions likely to bring greater problems Iranian money markets responded prematurely and the exchange rate fell. This will likely continue if the announcement of the designation which along with previous sanctions occur and will place a further strain on the Iranian government. Iran had recently announced (16 Jan 23) that it was to give the IRGC a financial monetary allocation of $3 billion in the national budget, representing a 28 percent increase on last year. Iran’s regular army had its budget increased by 36 percent to around $1.22 billion, and the police budget will increase by 44 percent to $1.55 billion. The intelligence ministry has received a 52 percent increase, approximately $500 million, while prison funding has increased by 55 percent, or $230 million. These pay increases show where the Iranian government priorities lie. The motto of the Islamic Republic of Iran should be, “Revolution before the people.” Iran states that the IRGC plays a vital role in the security in the region. Iran is an Asian country who likes to involve itself in Middle Eastern politics. The IRGC create, finances, give logistical assistance, train and guide proxies in the region to cause unrest. President Raisi has praised the IRGC and its fight against terrorism stating that “no other military force in the world has fought terrorism like the IRGC.” Meaning fighting against the Americans, the British the Saudi’s and Israel. Generally, the president is attempting to justify the IRGC to the Iranian population but is a tool of the revolution. The Islamic Republic cannot be seen to be the blame regarding the European action. Tasnimne news outlet stated on the 20 Jan 23 that, “In other words, Europe will officially declare that its forces would be a direct threat to the IRGC; this would indicate a clear meaning in the military and strategic framework. It means that the IRGC will now consider the military forces of these European countries as a threat to nations and geography of the region, just like as Daesh and CENTCOM.” The statement is a threat made against Europe through the Tasnim News Agency which is a semi-official news agency in Iran. It has links to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. On the 22 Jan 23 the Islamic Republic of Iran had a closed parliamentary session to discuss the IRGC on the European terrorist list and what their response would be once the announcement was made. It was conducted in order that all members could give their opinions and give a response to which they all agreed. The session was attended by Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian and IRGC chief commander General Hossein Salami. President Ayatollah Ebrahim Raisi also attended. He opened with, this action is a reaction against the insight and vigilance of the Iranian nation in thwarting the enemy's recent conspiracy and sedition to bring chaos to Iran.” He went on, “Both the military forces and the high political officials of the countries of the region and even the world recognizes the important and decisive role of the IRGC, the Quds Force and General Qassem Soleimani in the fight against terrorism in the region." There are those who would disagree with him. Sanctions Announcement The United States, United Kingdom and Europe 0n the 23 Jan 23 announced a new and fresh set of sanctions against the Islamic Republic. Whilst the sanctions represented a reply to the “brutal repression” by the Iranian government ion response to the current demonstrations the Americans placed sanctions targeting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Cooperative Foundation, an economic conglomerate established by senior Guard officers to manage its investments. The UK imposed sanctions and an asset freeze on Iranian deputy prosecutor general Ahmad Fazelian, who the British foreign office said was responsible for an unfair judicial system that used the death penalty for political purposes, they also blacklisted others. The UK failed to designate the IRGC as a Terrorist Organisation. The EU imposed asset freezes and visa bans on 37 Iranian officials and groups, including the sports minister, Revolutionary Guard commanders in 12 regions of Iran, hard-line politicians, senior state media officials and the head of the so-called “morality police.” The 27-nation bloc failed to nominate the IRGC as a Foreign Terrorist Organisation. In a video interview with the German politician Hannah Naumaan on the 23 Jan she explained that the EU had not dropped the idea of placing the IRGC on the FTL but was looking at doing so in the future. The politician said, “Some sanctions that come with naming someone as a terrorist organisation are already in place. We are already sanctioning the Revolutionary Guard because of the WMD that they are already developing. We are also individually sanctioning a number of the key players, in the Revolutionary Guard and at the moment we are working on legal pathways and working on political pathways so that we can finally name for what they are a terrorist organisation. But of the concrete sanctions they are already in place.” Meaning this issue has not gone away. The Iranian response was to impose its version of sanctions on the 25 Jan 23. They enforced sanctions on 34 individuals and entities from the European Union and Britain in reaction to similar measures taken against them. Iranian lawmaker, Jalal Rashidi Kouchi, stated, “that Iran’s response to the European Parliament’s resolution on the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) caused the EU to back down on the IRGC listing.” Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian wrote in the Tehran Times, saying “Branding the IRGC a ‘terrorist organization’ would be a colossal mistake on the part of the EU – a mistake Iran cannot be expected to ignore. Such a designation would encroach upon Iran’s sovereignty, flouting international law and the Charter of the United Nations. Such a serious escalation would further undermine Europe’s trustworthiness in matters related to international security and have profound implications for the interests of European countries in the Middle East region,” he wrote. “Therefore, it is of paramount importance that rationality prevails within the European foreign policy establishment to avert another crisis.” The FM, Hossein Amir Abdollahian, in the Tehran Times on the 20 Jan 23 was quoted as saying that the European parliament had “shot itself in the foot” when hearing about the European decision to place the IRGC on the European terrorist list. With their three-point plan to retaliate in the future against the Europeans the Iranians want to ensure the shoe is not on the Islamic Republic of Iran’s other foot. . |
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