Turkey

Located in Western Asia and Southeast Europe, Turkey possesses a long and storied history. Today’s Turkey has been inhabited by a number of ancient civilizations and was the heart of the Ottoman Empire until its collapse following World War I. After the fall of the Ottoman Empire the Turkish National Movement fought to create an independent Turkish State. This State was established in 1922 and led by Mustafa Kemal Ataturk. Ataturk abolished the sultanate of the Ottoman Empire and implemented radical reforms ensuring that Turkey would be a secular nation.
​Turkey remained neutral during most of World War II but entered on the side of the allies in the final months of the war. After the war Turkey was supported by the United States through the Truman Doctrine and joined NATO in 1952. During this period the government transitioned from the single party rule of Ataturk and his party to a multi-party democracy. The change did not come easily with multiple coups occurring between 1960 and 1980. In addition, in 1978 the Kurdish minority in Turkey began an insurgency that has continued to this day. The insurgency, a Kurdish quest to gain autonomy, has claimed over 40,000 lives. The 21st century has seen the rise of the Turkish economy and the continued growth of its regional power. Turkey has also been implementing reforms in the hopes of joining the European Union. While Turkey faces the challenges of the Kurdish insurgency and the Islamic State at its borders, it is a key member of the coalition against the Islamic State and will continue to receive support from the West. 

Social

Overview: The majority of Turkey identifies as ethnically Turkish. However, the country also has a sizeable population of ethnic Kurds. The Kurds are based in South Eastern Turkey but have spread throughout the country. The Kurds have waged an insurgency against the Turkish government since 1978 in order to achieve an autonomous Kurdish state. The insurgency has spurred heavy violence on both sides and is still a major problem in Turkey as tensions have recently mounted due to the Turkish bombing of Kurdish positions.

Demographics:

• Population: 79, 400,000
• Turkish: 70 – 75%
• Kurdish: 18%
• Other Minorities: 7 – 12&
• 0 – 14 years of age: 25.46%
• 15 – 24 years of age: 16.25%
• 25 – 54 years of age: 43.07%
• 55 – 64 years of age: 8.15%
• 65 years or over: 7.08%
• Muslim - 99.8% (primarily Sunni)
• (Numbers from the CIA World Fact Book) 

Trends: Turkey is facing a refugee problem from neighboring Iraq and Syria. Nearly two million displaced persons have crossed the border into Turkey since the chaos in Iraq and the Syrian Civil War. Turkey must find a way to deal with these refugees as tensions have rose and due to their presence. 

Economy

Economic System: Turkey, the 17th largest economy in the world, operates under a mostly free-market economy with some state involvement. Turkey’s economy has been rapidly growing in the last 5 to 10 years and is seen by various leading financial institutions as an emerging market and a newly industrialized country. The nation has a growing middle class and is diversifying from its traditional agricultural dominance.

Economic Trends: In 2001 Turkey faced a strong economic crisis but rebounded strongly due to prescient economic measures. It’s GDP expanded at a rate of around 6% until the 2008 global financial crisis. The GDP fell in 2009 but due to another round of wise economic measures Turkey recovered extremely quickly from the global financial crisis and its GDP rose to 9% in 2011. Since then, Turkey’s GDP has contracted but it still is showing overall growth. While the Turkish economy faces challenges of keeping a stable GDP and holding international confidence it is on the right path.

Economic Resources: Agricultural (hazelnuts, cherries, figs, apricots, watermelons, cucumbers, onions, olives, wheat), industrial (televisions, textiles, automobiles, arms), service sector, tourism, financial sector 

Political

Political System: Turkey is a representative democratic republic. The President of Turkey is elected directly for a five-year term and is eligible to serve two terms. The President serves as head of state and has a largely ceremonial role. The Prime Minister of Turkey serves as the head of government and holds executive power with the Council of Ministers. The President is appointed through a confidence vote of the Grand National Assembly and is usually the head of the largest party. The current Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu will resign as soon as a new coalition is formed after his party failed to receive a majority in Parliament in the June 2015 elections. The 550-seat Grand National Assembly of Turkey serves as the nation’s legislative branch. Members are directly elected in multi-seat constituencies by proportional representation to serve 4-year terms. A party must receive at least 10% of the overall vote in order to receive seats in the National Assembly. The judicial branches’ operates independently from the executive and legislative branches and its three highest courts include the Constitutional Court, Supreme Court of Appeals, and Council of State. 

Political Groups: The four largest political parties and the only parties to receive seats in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey due to the stipulation that a party must receive at least 10% of the vote to gain parliamentary seats.

• AKP – Justice and Development Party
• CHP – Republican People’s Party
• MHP – Nationalist Movement Party
• HDP – People’s Democratic Party

Political Conflicts: The government of Turkey has faced a serious insurgency from the Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK).  The insurgency, which began in 1978 and has had alternating times of high intensity and stagnation, has cost nearly 40,000 lives. Based in South Eastern Turkey, the insurgency is heating up due to Turkish bombing of PKK facilities and positions in July 2015. 

Military & Intelligence

Overview: The Turkish military is extremely important to the geopolitical goals of the West. Its proximity to the Middle East ensures that it is a critical point for operations against enemies such as the Islamic State. Turkey’s shared border with Syria and Iraq is a major concern for the country as the Islamic State holds positions very near Turkey. Turkey has been a major component of the fight against the Islamic State but it may have recently complicated the conflict by bombing PKK positions. In conclusion, Turkey has a large, modern army that is strategically important to Western goals in the Middle East. However, the situation is complicated due to the PKK insurgency and dangerous for Turkey with its Iraq and Syria as neighboring nations in disarray.
​
Branches:

• Turkish Land Forces
• Turkish Naval Forces
• Turkish Air Forces
• Gendarme (Used internally in peacetime)
• Coast Guard

​Reach: Turkey is a regional power. It has a strong and influential role in the military situation in the Middle East. It a crucial component of the coalition against the Islamic State because of its location. 

Infastructure

Roads: An extensive system of roads that are mostly well paved and reliable. In very rural areas roads may have potholes and be unpaved.
Railways: Trains are a cheap alternative to busses but the network in Turkey is relatively small. Many destinations cannot be accessed by railway.
Maritime (Rivers, Lakes,)  Ferries traverse the Mediterranean and connect Turkey’s coastal outlets.
Power: Reliable electricity.
Internet: Generally reliable. Found in larger cities. Hard to find outside of cities.
Phone: A variety of mobile companies. 

Information

Freedom of the press: The press is only partially free in Turkey. Although the constitution protects freedom of the press, broad anti-terrorism laws are used by the government to imprison journalists. As of 2015 Turkey has more imprisoned journalists than any other nation. Any media outlet that criticizes Ataturk, the Armenian Genocide, the PKK, or other deemed terrorist networks are banned in the country.

​Media institutions: Turkey has 370 newspapers, thousands of radio stations, hundreds of television channels both public and private. The internet has restrictions, YouTube was blocked until 2010 because of videos that offended the legacy of Attaturk, but is growing in usage by the population. 

Analysis: Country Trajectory
Turkey will continue to gain prominence as a regional power in an extremely strategic region for the West. Turkey must deal with internal problems such as the conflict with PKK and refugees, and external problems such as the chaos along its borders. Still, the economy has been managed well and Turkey continues to grow in prosperity and prestige. It must continue to implement and execute reforms to fulfill its wish to join the European Union. While this is unlikely to happen in the next 5 to 10 years, continued reforms could help Turkey gain entry into the European Union.