Yemen

Located on the Southern end of the Arabian Peninsula, Yemen’s recent history is rife with instability. In 1990 the Marxist South Yemen and North Yemen agreed to unification and became one state under the name of the Republic of Yemen. However, a southern secessionist movement sparked a short lived civil war in 1994.

Since 2004, the Houthis, a Northern Yemen based Zaidi Shia sect, has waged a low level insurgency against the central government. This insurgency saw varying levels of violence between 2004 and 2014. In 2011, large-scale protests inspired by the Arab Spring erupted in Yemen. The Houthis supported these protests and called for the removal of the central government. A transition government was created led by Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. After two years of talks, the Houthis walked away from negotiations for a new government and began to seize land including the capital of Sana. This began the Yemen Civil War. The central government led by Hadi called for outside help and was aided by a coalition led by Saudi Arabia. Today, the fighting continues.
​
Meanwhile, extremely dangerous terrorist organizations have taken hold in Yemen. Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula controls large swaths of land in Yemen and is seen by the United States as the most dangerous active terrorist group. The Islamic State has also begun to make inroads into the country. The political instability is set against a backdrop of extreme poverty and war related suffering.

Social

Overview: Yemen is a Muslim country with approximately 65% adhering to Sunni Islam and 35% adhering to Shia Islam. Stark conditions have created a very young median age.

• Demographics
  
• Population: 26,737, 317
  
• 0-14 years old– 41.49%
  
• 15-24 years old – 21.12%
  
• 25-54 years old – 31.33%
  
• 55-64 years old – 3.79%
  
• 65 and over – 2.67%
  
• Muslim: 99.1% (65% Sunni, 35% Shia)
  
• Predominately Arab Ethnicity
  
• Trends: The majority of the population is very young with a median age of 18.9 years. The conditions in the country must be improved to raise this low number.
  

Economy

Economic System: Yemen’s economy is in dire condition because of the current civil strife. The government has been unable to access many regions. Before the conflict, Yemen was already the poorest country in the Middle East. It is highly dependent on its oil reserves to sustain its economy. Petroleum accounts for roughly 25% of GDP and 70% of government revenue. The current security situation has had a devastating effect on the already weak economy. Confidence from foreign investors is jeopardized by war, corruption, smuggling and insecurity, along with the growing problem of increased piracy off the coast of Yemen in the Gulf of Aden. 
Economic Trends: The civil war engulfing Yemen must end before any type of economic recovery. Furthermore, Yemen’s oil reserves are in decline and the economy must diversify to survive.
​
Economic Resources: Crude oil, coffee, dried and salted fish, and liquefied natural gas.

​Economic Trends: The civil war engulfing Yemen must end before any type of economic recovery. Furthermore, Yemen’s oil reserves are in decline and the economy must diversify to survive.

Infastructure

• Roads: The eastern regions lacks roads while other regions often have newly built roads.
• Railways: Non-existent.
• Maritime : Borders the Gulf of Aden, Red Sea, and Arabian Sea
• Power: Lowest amount of connection in the Middle East. Even less with the war.
• Internet: Poor internet infrastructure. People mainly connect through internet cafes which can be monitored by the government.
• Phone: Poor infrastructure and low usage right due to high cost.

Political

Political Groups: Several groups are vying for power during Yemen’s civil war.

• Forces loyal to President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi. The United Nations and the United States recognizes Hadi and his forces as the legitimate government of Yemen. They are based in the south having declared a move of the capital from Sana’a to Aden after the Houthis overran Sana’a and the presidential palace. Hadi is supported primarily by Sunnis from Southern Yemen by a militia known as the Popular Resistance Committee and an assortment of tribes.
• The Houthis. The Houthis are Zaida Shias from Northern Yemen. Officially, they are known as Ansar Allah or Supporters of God. The group has been led by Abdul Malik al-Houthi since 2004. They have rebelled against the central government for a number of reasons including corruption and inequality
• Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). AQAP is thought of by the United States intelligence community as the most dangerous faction of al-Qaeda due to its technical skills and global aspirations. It has used the civil strife in Yemen to gain large swaths of land in Southern Yemen. It has carried out attacks against both the Houthis and the central government.
• The Islamic State. The Islamic States has been making advances into Yemen. It claimed responsibility for a March 2015 bombing at a mosque that killed 142 Houthis. ​

Political Conflicts: Yemen is currently embroiled in a civil war. The Houthi’s, led by Abdul Malik al-Houthi, have waged a low-level insurgency against the central government with various periods of violence and calm since 2004. In 2011 protests inspired by the Arab Spring began in Yemen. The protesters demonstrated against the central government of Ali Abdullah Saleh and were supported by the Houthis. The protests called for an end to corruption and inequality. The protests led to a National Dialogue Conference that eventually confirmed the presidency of Saleh’s vice president Abrabbuh Mansour Hadi. The Houthi’s did not agree with the result and ended up leaving the conference. Tensions escalated into clashes with the Houthis taking the capital Sana’a and forcing a power sharing deal with the central government of Hadi in September 2014. Unhappy with the agreement, the Houthi’s stormed the presidential palace in January 2015 placing Hadi under house arrest. Hadi was able to escape house arrest and fled to the Southern port city of Aden in February 2015. He declared Aden the new capital. The Houthis began to advance on Aden forcing Hadi to flee. Hadi called for the aid from Saudi Arabia to support his central government. A coalition led by Saudi Arabia and Egypt was formed and began to bomb the Houthis. The bombing and fighting continues. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has seized large swaths of land in the country and has carried out attacks against both the Houthis and Hadi’s forces. Recently, a sect of the Islamic State has also moved into the country vying for power.

Allies & Adversaries: Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain, Morocco, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Sudan are aligned with Hadi’s government and bombing the Houthis. The United States helps this effort with intelligence, logistics, and targeting. The United States and Saudi Arabia claim that Iran is aligned with the Houthis and providing them with aid, weapons, and training. However, both have denied this allegation. ​

Military, Intelligence, & Law Enforcement

Overview: The Yemeni military has faced defections to both the side of the protestors in 2011 and the side of the Houthis in 2014. It may not have survived the Houthi advance towards Aden without assistance from the Saudi led coalition.
Branches: Army, Navy, Air Force, Border Guards
Reach: A national force without the strength to crush domestic opposition.
Allies & Adversaries: Allies with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the rest of the coalition. Aid from the United States and UK.       
Adversaries: Houthis, AQAP, Islamic State

Information

Freedom of the Press: Yemen has been and remains an extremely difficult country for journalists to operate in. First and foremost, the security of journalists is nearly impossible to ensure. Groups such as AQAP and the Houthis have attacked and killed journalists and media workers. The official government also staunchly restricts journalistic freedom. The government has denied access to areas of instability monitors journalists for anything that is against its values. Special courts have been convened to try journalists and the official government revokes foreign journalist’s visas and may expel them from the country. Journalists have also been harassed by the Houthis and a number have been killed by unidentified assailants.

​Media Institutions: Since 2012 the number of privately owned television and radio stations has rapidly grown. Radio stations have grown especially prevalent because they have not been strongly censored. The growth of television and radio media is important because of Yemen’s low literacy rate. Most individual consume their news in these two mediums.

Analysis: Country Trajectory
The outlook for Yemen is extremely negative. Civilians in Yemen are suffering due to the shortage of almost all essentials because of the civil war. The Saudi led coalitions bombing has been called indiscriminate and civilian casualties have mounted. The biggest hope for Yemen lies in some type of peace settlement between the Houthis and Hadi’s government. This seems unlikely as prior settlements have failed. Meanwhile, al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has a firm grasp on a sizeable amount of land in Yemen and continues to attract fighters. The United States had to remove its special operations forces from Yemen and now can only hope to combat AQAP with drones. Meanwhile, the Islamic States is attempting to make inroads into the country without anyone preventing its advance.