Mexico

Located on the southern border of the United States, Mexico holds a long and storied history of remarkable civilizations. In 1521 Spain colonized and controlled the vast territory until Mexico formally achieved independence in 1821. The post independence period was marked by war, including with the United States, and dictatorship. Ultimately, this led to the Mexican Revolution of 1917 which created a new democratic and power limiting constitution. 
Despite the new constitution the National Revolutionary Party held democratic power in Mexico for the greater part of a century. The National Revolutionary Party oversaw important reforms such as the nationalization of the oil industry and the steady growth of the Mexican economy. While much of the Mexican population remains poor due to unequal income distribution, the country has the 15th largest economy in the world. After the National Revolutionary Party lost the 2000 elections, multiple parties have vied for power. Since 2006 violence has drastically escalated in Mexico due to cartel violence. Today, this is the greatest problem facing a turbulent Mexico. 

Social

Overview: With a population of 122 million, Mexico is the 11th largest nation in the world and the most populated Spanish speaking country. The country is ethnically diverse with various indigenous people and European immigrants mixing since the arrival of the Spanish in 1521. Since the escalation of the war against the cartels in 2007 Mexican society has faced problems of heavy violence and crime. This has caused mass emigration and an estimated 160,000 displaced peoples.  

Demographics:

• Mestizo (American-Spanish) – 60%
• Amerindian or predominantly Amerindian – 30%
• White – 9%
• Other – 1%
• 0-14 – 27.9%
• 15-24 – 18.1%
• 25 -54 – 40.4%
• 55 – 64 – 7%
• 65 and older – 6.9%
• Roman Catholic – 82.7%
• Evangelical Churches – 5%
• Pentecostal – 1.6%
• Jehovah’s Witnesses – 1.4%
• Other – 1.9%
• (Numbers From Colombia Country Profile) 

​Trends: Since 2007 there has been an increase in violence and crime due to the war against the cartels. Mexico also has to deal with hundreds of thousands of immigrants from central American countries arriving in the country to find work or to head to the United States. It is the second largest cultivator of opium in the world and nearly 95% of cocaine in the United States travels through Mexico. While tourist spots and cities such as Mexico City remain safe, Mexican society as a whole faces the tough problems of cartel activity and its repercussions. 

Economy

Economic System: Mexico’s free market economy ranks 15th largest in the world. It is an export-oriented economy with nearly 90% of its trade falling under Free Trade Agreements. Since the creation of the 1994 North American Free Trade Agreement, the United States and Canada have accounted for 90% of Mexico’s imports and 50% of its exports. Although Mexico has retained macroeconomic stability, it suffers from severe income inequality both between people and the Northern and Southern States. The average income of a Mexican citizen is only 1/3 of that of a United States citizen at $16,000. Nearly 42% of Mexican citizens live in moderate to extreme poverty.

Economic Trends: In the past 30 years Mexico has worked to increase economic competition. Since 1982 the number of state owned entities in Mexico has drastically decreased. Still, the huge business of oil is a state owned enterprise through PEMEX. The 2009 global recession saw Mexico’s gross domestic product decrease by nearly 6%. Since 1997 the amount of remittances sent from Mexican’s abroad has steadily increased. Today, money sent back to Mexico from immigrants accounts for 2.1% of the nation’s GDP.

​Economic Resources: Mexico has substantial oil reserves held under state control. The nation’s economy is based primarily off of industry and services with food and beverages, tobacco, chemicals, iron and steel, tourism, clothing, and textiles accounting for most of the economy. 

Political

Political System: Prior to 2000 Mexico was under control of a single party, National Revolutionary Party. Today, Mexico is a federal republic divided into three branches in the manner of the United States. The President heads the executive branch and serves as both the chief of state and head of government. The bicameral legislative branch consists of the Senate and the Chamber of Deputies. The Supreme Court is made up of seven justices that are nominated by the president for a life term.

Political Groups: Mexico has seven nationally registered political parties. Traditionally, three of these political parties dominate national elections. The three dominant political parties include the right-center National Action Party (PAN), the centrist Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), and the left-center Party of the Democratic Revolution. The four other registered national parties consist of Citizen’s Movement, Labor Party, Mexican Green Ecological Party, and New Alliance Party. Mexico’s 31 states also have local parties, subject to different registration guidelines, which compete in state and municipal elections.

Political Conflicts: Political conflict in Mexico stems from the ongoing battle between the government and cartels. The powerful cartels have targeted government officials in response to the government’s attempts to curb cartel activity. Anti-government action has grown particularly violent since former president Felipe Calderon enlarged the scale of anti-cartel campaign. There has also been problems of government corruption. Most recently, the mass murder of 43 students in in the city of Iguala has been identified as a joint government/cartel operation. 

Military & Intelligence

Overview: Mexico’s Armed Forces (MAF) are estimated to rank as 31st most powerful in the world. Since the 2006 escalation of the war against the cartels both the size and funding of the MAF has increased. Today, the MAF has nearly 300,000 armed forces members and the government spends $7 billion a year on the military. The military is exclusively engaged in domestic operations against cartels but has also been deployed to aid in natural disaster relief throughout the globe.

Branches: The Mexican Armed Forces consist of two completely separate branches. The Mexican Army includes the Mexican Air Force, Presidential Guard, Military Police, and Special Forces. The Mexican Navy includes the Naval Infantry Force and the Naval Aviation. The Army and Navy are not connected and are run by the National Defense Secretariat and the Naval Secretariat.

Reach: The Mexican Armed Forces are focused domestically and have continually waged war against the cartels. While security is tight in more central locations like Mexico City and traditional tourist areas, the armed forces do not have as firm a grasp on southern states and border areas.

Terrorist Groups/Criminal Organizations:        

• The Sinaloa Cartel
• The Beltran Levya Organization
• The Juarez Cartel
• The Knights Templar
• The Gulf Cartel
• Los Zetas
• The Tijuana Cartel

Information

Freedom of the press: Mexico is an extremely unsafe country for journalism. Although technically protected under the Mexican Constitution, journalists and journalistic institutes are often the targets of violence. In 2012 alone 8 journalists were killed and 4 disappeared. 4 media institutions were also attacked with incendiary devices. 20 journalists fled to Mexico City for protection while numerous others have gone into hiding. The violence is a result of the extensive cartel activity in Mexico. Journalists will often be attacked for reporting on cartel violence or possible cartel/political connections. The Mexican government is largely ineffective at protecting journalists and investigating violence aimed at reporters. This causes many journalists to self-censor out of concern for their own safety. This often causes incomplete or inaccurate reporting.

​Media institutions: Media institutions are concentrated in the hands of very few owners. Two television networks, Televisa and TV Azteca, control 85% of television stations. These stations are the only ones with national reach. Meanwhile, about a 12 families control radio in Mexico. Mexican citizens are increasingly turning to social media and blogs to spread news but are themselves becoming targets of violence. 

Infastructure

​Roads: Generally in good conditions, particularly the many toll roads. Its advised not to drive at night due to the possibility of bandits. Be aware of many checkpoints, especially near border areas.
Railways: Almost no railway transportation in Mexico.
Maritime (Rivers, Lakes): Mostly on the country’s east coast connected to ports.
Power: Extremely reliable in urban Mexico, rural Mexico is about 95% covered.
Internet: Mexico is undergoing a surge in broadband connection. Sill, poor infrastructure and high access costs mean unreliable internet out of tourist areas and major cities.
Phone: Surge in cellphone coverage in the past 5 years. The easiest option is to purchase a pay as you go SIM card. 

Analysis: Country Trajectory
Its difficult to envision cartel activity subsiding in the next 5 to 10 as their operations are extremely lucrative. The continued activity of the cartels will mean continuing government operations against the crime syndicates and more violence. The violence threatens the domestic situation in Mexico as hundreds of thousands of people have been internally displaced, emigrated, or killed/disappeared. While still struggling from the 2008 recession, Mexico’s economy is projected to grow to become the world’s fifth largest by 2050. However, without some type of settlement with the cartels this could be hampered.