Jordan

The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, like the majority of the Levant and North Africa, was subject to external rule throughout its tumultuous history. The decline of the Byzantine era preluded the rise of Islamic rule in the form of the Rashidun Caliphate. Three more caliphates would rule the Arab world until the rise of the Ottoman Empire in 1516. During the First World War, the Allies negotiated an agreement with Sharif Hussein of Mecca to help them overthrow the Ottoman Empire in exchange for independence.

Instead, what followed the Great Arab Revolt of 1916 were new Middle Eastern borders drawn by the Allied forces. These new lines of demarcation designated in the Sykes-Picot Agreement created the borders of modern-day Jordan and today are often credited as a foundational cause of unrest in the Arab world.

Jordan, or Transjordan initially, was recognized as a British mandate in 1922, and obtained its  full independence after World War II in 1946. Four kings have ruled Jordan since its independence: King Abdullah I (1921-1951), King Talal (1951-1952), King Hussein (1952-1999), and King Abdullah II (1999-Present). Its modern existence has been mired in conflict, revolving primarily around the state of Israel, including the 1948 Arab-Israeli War, the Six-Day War in 1967, and the Yom Kippur War in 1973.

Today, Jordan maintains domestic stability, but it is bordered by unrest. To the west is Israel and Palestine; to the north is Sryia; and Iraq to the east is Iraq. The Arab Spring in 2011 swept across the Middle East, leaving destruction and civil strife in its path. In response, King Abdullah II implemented domestic reforms, including the establishment of parliamentary governments and proportional representation.

However, civil unrest is prevalent in Jordan too: King Abdullah II is responsible for answering to a diversity of interests, from those living in the educated, cosmopolitan Amman to the traditional Bedouin tribes. Additionally, the influx of refugees from Syria, Iraq, and Palestine has strained the resource-deprived Jordanian economy, resulting in high unemployment (especially among the youth), rapid inflation, and underdeveloped infrastructure.

Social

Overview
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            The majority of Jordan’s population identify as Arab (98%), with minority populations identifying as Armenian (1%) and Circassian (1%). Jordan is a predominantly Sunni Muslim country: approximately 97% of the country identifies as Muslim; a little more than 2% identify as Christian. Arabic is Jordan’s official language, but English is widely understood by the middle and upper class.

• Population: 8,185,384
• Arab: 98%
• Armenian: 1%
• Circassian: 1%
• 0 – 14 years of age: 35.04%
• 15 – 24 years of age: 20.12%
• 25 – 54 years of age: 36.44%
• 55 – 64 years of age: 4.46%
• 65 years or over: 3.94%
• Muslim - 97% (primarily Sunni)

*(Numbers from the CIA World Fact Book)

Trends: Jordan is facing a refugee crisis from neighboring Iraq and Syria. There are over 1.4 million Syrian refugees in Jordan and approximately 20,000 Iraqi refugees. Plus, Jordan is home to over 2 million Palestinians, most of whom are Jordanian citizens. Jordan must find a way to deal with these refugees and rising tensions associated with the crisis.

Economy

Economic System

Jordan’s economy is one of the smallest in the Middle East. Jordan struggles to maintain sufficient supplies of water and oil and possesses almost no natural resources. Its economy is chronically mired in unemployment and underemployment and struggles with government debt, in large part due to the influx of Syrian refugees.

​Jordan’s growth has slowed substantially since the economic downturn of 2008 combined with regional turmoil. Jordan’s economy is diverse, with trade and finance, transportation and communication, public utilities, construction, and manufacturing accounting for nearly 75% of GDP.

Economic Trends: The Jordanian economy has slowed substantially in the last ten years, from averaging approximately 8% GDP growth per year in the early to mid 2000s, to approximately 2.5% since the global economic downturn of 2008 and the uprisings across the Middle East.

Economic Resources: Agriculture (vegetables, primarily tomatoes), industry (mining, manufacturing, construction, and power), tourism, service sector (primarily communications)..

Infastructure

Roads: A standard system of roads that is mostly well paved and reliable. In rural areas roads may have potholes and be unpaved.
Railways: Trains are functional, but the network in Jordan is small. Many destinations cannot be accessed by railway.
Maritime: Sound maritime infrastructure, but relativity insignificant due to geographic circumstances.
Power: Reliable electricity.
Internet: Generally reliable. Found in larger cities. Less reliable outside of cities.
Phone: A variety of mobile companies. 

Political

Political System: Jordan is a constitutional monarchy. The parliament of Jordan is divided into the Senate, with 65 seats, and the House of Representatives, with 130 seats. Jordan maintains a quota system to ensure representation of Jordan’s diverse population, including seats for women, Christians, and the Bedouin. The king maintains near-absolute authority: he is the Commander-in-Chief and maintains the ability to dissolve parliament. The judicial system is constitutionally guaranteed independence, but its independence is not always recognized in practice.   

Political Groups: There are over 50 political groups in Jordan, representing the broad diversity of interests in the country. From the more liberal ideologies centrally located in the capital of Amman to the traditional and conservative Bedouin tribes in Jordan - and everything in between - the spectrum of interests in Jordan are represented in its sundry political system.​

Military, Intelligence, & Law Enforcement

Military and Intelligence

​Overview:
            The strength of the Jordanian military is essential to the interests of the West. Jordan’s shared borders with Syria, Iraq, Israel, and Saudi Arabia make it of critical strategic importance to the West, especially due to the rise of the ISIS. The Jordanian army is considered one of the most professional and well-trained military forces in the region.

Branches:

• Royal Jordanian Army
• Royal Jordanian Air Force
• Royal Jordanian Navy

​Reach: Jordan is a beacon of stability surrounded by conflict. Its relationship with the West and the strength of its military are critical to the security of the nation and the global fight against terrorism.

Information

Information
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Freedom of the Press: The press is partially free in Jordan. Freedom of speech is guaranteed in the constitution, but certain subjects are routinely censored or punishable (particularly online), including insults to the royal family, harming Arab-Islamic values, and deliberately inciting sectarian strife. Additionally, several media outlets are state-controlled.
Media Institutions: Jordan has four main daily newspapers, one state-owned television network comprising of four separate channels, five radio stations (one of which is state-run), and three news agencies that operate online. Today, many Jordanians obtain their news from Facebook, increasing the challenge of the government to censor speech.

Analysis: Country Trajectory
           It is hardly an exaggeration to state that the future of the Levant rests with the lasting security of Jordan. Despite its small economy, Jordan is a Middle Eastern political powerhouse outside of the Gulf. Yet, the future of Jordan is uncertain: climate change is threatening Jordan’s water security – one of the most water-deprived countries in the world. Additionally, Jordan is home to millions of refugees and maintains few natural resources. Nor did the Arab Spring pass over Jordan: social unrest is prevalent, although revolution is taboo. Still, the combination of high youth unemployment, deteriorating infrastructure, water insecurity, and rising social tensions, the future of Jordan looks fraught with challenges. A concerted international effort to promote peace in the Arab world is Jordan’s best hope for a secure nation.