The recent Russian mutiny between Russian mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin and President Putin is far from over yet. Those that 'were' involved are not being allowed to continue soldiering. Those who 'were not' involved are being offered further employment with the Defence Ministry who wanted to bring mercenary groups under its control by 1 Jul 23. Prigozhin will not have got away with this completely even though Putin has said that all charges will be dropped. He maybe being exiled in Belorussia but he still has influence and is still within reach of retribution. Putin is a former Cold War veteran, let us not forget some of those who were murdered during and after the Cold War; 1978, Georgi Ivanov Markov stabbed with the tip of an umbrella in London killing him with ricin nerve agent; Alexander Valterovich "Sasha" Litvinenko who died in London on the 23 Nov 06 after being poisoned with Polonium-210 and the attempted assassination using Novichok nerve agent against Sergei and his daughter Yulia Skripal in Salisbury, England in Mar 18. These are just three cases. If and when Prigozhin is assassinated then this may cause further friction between the former Wagner supporters and Putin. Putin has been threatened and humiliated and will want revenge ensuring that this will never happen again. There will still be a lot of bad feeling over the whole incident. The Russian hierarchy will now be looking at the future of Russia. Those who are in charge of the military may face accusations of aiding and abetting, some may even start looking over their shoulders. Russia military figures, (who accused the Ukrainians of being Nazi's) may face similar consequences similar to those who assisted in the attempted murder of Hitler with the recriminations that may follow. By splitting and removing the Wagner forces from the front line, Ukraine should be able to exploit that weakness to their advantage, thus putting Putin under more pressure by losing territory and the support back home. Putin’s life expectancy as a leader has just been shortened as for when and how will be more to do with what the outcome of the troops marching on Moscow, how their former boss is treated and how much ground the Ukrainians retake along with the body-bags being returned. These outcomes will depend on his survival. The operation by the Wagner forces was not just set up over a brew in the canteen but took a lot of time and planning. Who was on side and who was not. The logistics and planning under secrecy would have taken weeks to prepare. The movement of heavy armoured vehicles, weapons, ammunition and logistics are immense tasks. Then the timing as to when it would happen had to be right. A lot of factors to be taken into consideration. We now hurry up and wait to find out what will happen next.
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