The stalemate for the revival of the 2016 JCPOA agreement is well documented after no move since Aug/Sep 22 with both sides blaming the other for not being flexible in the agreement revival. There are also the issue of drones being sent to Russia from Iran and the on-going demonstrations in Iran from females attempting to stand up to the Iranian regime. In the past both sides in the agreement attempted to sit down and find a way for diplomacy to be the sensible option. Iran insists that the United States guarantee that the Americans will not walk away from any agreement in the future should the Republicans come back into power. President Trump (Republican) walked away from the agreement in 2018. The Biden administration (Democrat) made the revival an election promise. It’s now November and the United States mid-term elections are due to be held on the 8 Nov 22. The election pledge to return to the JCPOA deal has not happened which will give the Republicans some ammunition. The Biden administration as always stated that if there was no return to the agreement then the military option was on the table along with a Plan B. No matter who asked there was never any sign of a hint as to what Plan B would be. It would now appear that Plan B was, and will be what people thought all along that it would be the military option if an agreement was not reached and the Iranians decide to build a nuclear weapon. The Plan B option was reiterated on the 31 Oct 22 when US Special Envoy for Iran Rob Malley said that the military option was still on the table if diplomacy failed in trying to revive the 2015 nuclear deal with Tehran. Nothing else was mentioned, certainly nothing to do with any Plan B option. The Americans see the biggest threat to the United States would be from the Islamic Republic of Iran should it have a nuclear device and the United States is being “consistent and necessary to promote our values and our national security interests.” (The Times of Israel 01 Nov 22). The Iranians are already dug in deep in Venezuela. In Aug 20 President Maduro said that it would be a good idea to look into purchasing Iranian missiles. The United States response to this suggestion was simple, "The transfer of long-range missiles from Iran to Venezuela is not acceptable to the United States and will not be tolerated or permitted," Elliott Abrams, US Special Representative for Iran and Venezuela said. He added, "We will make every effort to stop shipments of long-range missiles, and if somehow they get to Venezuela they will be eliminated there." If Iran was to build a nuclear device and get into Venezuela then a re-enactment of the of October 1962 could take place. However, in all these discussions in regards to the talks to halt Iran to have a nuclear device there are two camps or is it three? The first camp is the West (United States, United Kingdom, France and Germany) three members of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council along with Germany (+1), the second camp is made up of Iranian allies China and Russia, (the other two permanent members of the United Nations Security Council) the third camp being the Islamic Republic of Iran. With Iran being so close to the Middle East it would have been thoughtful to have several members from the Region on the negotiating table as Iran with a nuclear device would be a greater threat to the Middle East. This being the case until Iran managed to find a rocket or missile with the capability of reaching the shores of the United States. Israel has already stated on more than one occasion that it will strike the Islamic Republic of Iran should it even show a hint of building a nuclear device. So, the military option has always been there. If Israel was to start a direct action against Iran, then its allies would or should step up to the mark. Iran for all its boasting and rhetoric knows this and has to tread carefully. It may boast to its population that no one would dare attack it but in reality, Iran can only allow its proxies to hurt its enemies for to be confronted by an outside military force directly, would be the downfall of the Iranian revolutionary hopes and future.
However, later developments have made one point a little clearer. The Iranians claimed through the Tehran Times that there really was a Plan B. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian said on the 5 Nov 22 that Iran’s recent unrest was Plan B pursued by the United States and the U.S. had failed in implementing this plan. Hindsight can be a wonderful thing but to know the future is an outstanding achievement. To predict or know that the murder of a young female (Mahsa Amini) at the hands of the Islamic Republic’s morality police would spark off nationwide demonstrations is beyond being a psychic phenomenon knowing that Plan B was the demonstrations. There was no further explanation as he then changed the subject. There are numerous accounts of various countries being blamed by Iran for the unrest but being able to pick one out and claim that it was the American Plan B is a very clever achievement.
Detracting from the sarcasm Iran did announce that it had successfully launched a new satellite carrier into space (Tasnim News Agency 5 Nov 22) using a solid fuel rocket. Iran claims that their space program is similar to its nuclear program and that it is for peaceful purposes. The west and the United States have and are suspicious of the space program as they believe that the same technology can be used to develop a rocket or missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. It could be coincidental that the Iranian space program and its search for deeper penetration into space along with its nuclear program are being researched and established at the same time.
The demonstrations in an effort to stand up for human rights and the freedom of females in the Islamic Republic of Iran continues. The Iranians announced on the 1 Nov 22 that it was to hold public trials of a thousand people on trial and will do so in public in a Revolutionary Court. The protestors will be accused of “acts of sabotage, including assaulting or killing security guards and setting fire to public property.” Some will face the death penalty. On the 17 Oct 22 the European Union imposed sanctions on Iran’s morality police and officials were cited.
From a CBS YouTube report dated 30 Oct 22 the news channel announced that there had been 1400 people such as lawyers, music artists, journalists along with other backgrounds had been ‘detained’. They also announced that 7 of those detained were to be executed. The trials come after a period of detention depending on the mental strength of the individual. Often, they are held with no contact with the outside world nor their families. They would endure intense interrogation from skilled interrogators and without proper access to a lawyer. These trails started on the 30 Oct 22 and the individuals were charged with ‘waging war’, ‘corruption of the earth’ or ‘corruption on earth’. It is important that the reader remembers that the Islamic Republic of Iran is worked on a Theocratic society. (A state thus governed; theocrat, a divine or deified ruler (1523)) These charges can lead to the death penalty. The trial of the accused is supposedly a ‘public trial’ but family members are rarely allowed in and detainees are not allowed an attorney of their choice but have a state appointed one. There is no independent press or media allowed into the ‘public’ trial, just state appointed press and media. Any evidence used in the trial is not seen by the detainee or their lawyer until the start of the trial. The evidence may have been fabricated and will not be allowed to have any cross examination. The detainee may have been forced to make a confession sometimes it is even televised which the detainee will have no knowledge of, this will be used against them. Any ‘witnesses’ presented will not be cross examined either. All in all, a fair system.
On the 26 Oct 22 Iran announced sanctions against eight institutions and 12 individuals based in the EU, accusing them of “supporting terrorist groups”, “inciting violence” and “provoking riots, violence and terrorist acts” in Iran in relation to the anti-regime protests. The Iranian blacklist includes the International Committee in Search of Justice, the International League against Racism and Anti-Semitism, and the Persian versions of German broadcaster Deutsche Welle and Radio France Internationale. European politicians and two individuals at the German tabloid newspaper Bild were also sanctioned. Those on the list are subject to visa bans and the seizure of any property or assets the targeted individuals and entities have in Iran. The sanctions placed on the European people and organisations don’t hold up too much. They are merely a propaganda tool used by the Iranians to inform the population that if sanctions are imposed on them, then they can do the same, ha, take that. The EU on the 31 Oct announced that it was looking to launch another sanction package against Iran and also look into listing the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation. The thought of placing the IRGC on a terrorist list comes after the IRGC Commander announced on the 29 Oct 22 that that day would be the last day of taking to the streets and demonstrating. Although a separate issue, the Iranians announced on the 1 Nov 22 through the Tasnim News Agency that it was imposing sanctions on United States individuals, entities for Human Rights violations and gave a list of those who it “effected.” The day before, the same news outlook wrote that the spokesperson for the Foreign Ministry of Iran took a swipe at Germany for its unconstructive initiative to classify the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) as a “terrorist organization”. Speaking at a press conference on Monday, Nasser Kanaani denounced Germany’s plan to add the IRGC to the list of “terrorist organizations” as another “irresponsible measure” in relation to the Islamic Republic that results from a “wrong approach” to the Iranian government and nation. The Tehran Times went further and asked if “Germany was playing with fire?” As Germany is part of the “ongoing” talks at reviving the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) the Iranian regime said that ‘IF’ Germany (and/or the EU) was to place the IRGC on a terrorist list then it would complicate matters. The news outlet said, if “the EU sanctions on the IRGC would add another horrendous obstacle to reviving the JCPOA, if not spelling the end of the JCPOA.” Clearly an open threat in order to stop the implementation of the IRGC being placed on another foreign terrorist list. The Iranian foreign spokesman Kananni said, “The IRGC is an official military organization of Iran and such a move is illegal. We hope that the German government and other states take note of their unconstructive measures and refrain from sacrificing their bilateral interests for transient political interests and emotional decisions.” Approximately 50 German firms have offices in Iran and several companies have a major involvement in Iranian infrastructure projects. German banks announced in 2018 that German exports to Iran had been reduced by 1.8 billion euros. Another reason why Germany was so keen to revive the JCPOA agreement.
Germany’s support for the demonstrations led 80,000 to the streets on the 22 Oct 22 showing “solidarity with courageous women and demonstrations in Iran. The Tehran Times put a different spin on the rally two days after the event. They claimed that the people of Germany took to the streets claiming that, “Protesters have staged demonstrations across Germany as the Ukraine war is seriously damaging the living standards of millions of middle-class citizens, many of whom are slipping into poverty.” It was an immense propaganda piece with nothing in it to give the real reason for the Germans holding such large gatherings.
Iranian Guilt on Drones shows how Iran lies
One of the top countries in the world for not telling the truth finally admitted in an Al-Arabiya report on the 5 Nov 22 that they were providing Russia with drones. Although not quiet going the full distance they stated that the drones had been supplied to Russia ‘before’ the illegal Russian invasion against the Ukraine on the 20 Feb 22. Their most common word for refuting all, or any involvement in anything they have been accused of, knowledge to have been involved in and/or intelligence that points to Iranian involvement is “baseless.” By their own admission, they have now, made the past comments regarding not supplying drones to Russia ‘baseless’. This was also due to the evidence stacked against the Islamic Republic of Iran that western intelligence services knew that Russia was being supplied with Iranian drones. When you look at the accusations against Iran for supplying the UAV’s they came long after the conflict had started and following reports that Russia had problems with its logistical chain regarding the resupplying of its front-line troops with arms, ammunition, drones and missiles. The so-called impartiality that the Islamic Republic of Iran alleges to show in the Russia/Ukraine conflict has now been blown out of the water and its evident that Iran has supported the Russians from the start. The Iranians have even lied to the United Nations. Iran’s Ambassador to the UN Amir Saeid Iravani called the allegations “totally unfounded” and reiterated Iran’s position of neutrality in the war. Iran’s foreign minister Amirabdollahian claimed on the 5 Nov 22 that Iran was oblivious to the use of its drones in Ukraine. He said Iran remained committed to stopping the conflict. The Iranian foreign minister has asked the Ukrainians to provide evidence regarding Iranian drones being used, why? By their own admission they have just self-confessed to supplying the drones to Russia so why did they not admit this earlier? On the 5 Nov 22 the only headline worthy of note in the Tehran Times was, “FM calls accusations against Iran on Ukraine fabricated, unsubstantiated.” On the one hand Iran lies to the world, on the other they lie to their own people. First, they admit the involvement then they state that they are not involved.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy explained that the version of the Iranian drone admission was false. On the 5 Nov 22 he said, “Even with this confession, they are lying,” the Ukrainian leader said. The number of Iranian combat drones shot down by Ukrainian air defences exceeds the “few” drones cited by Iran.
Al Jazeera carried another twist to the admission. Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian in the past has requested the Ukrainians to produce proof in Iran’s involvement with the war and provide evidence that would indicate Iran. The Tehran Times on the 22 Oct 22 made a comment regarding the so called evidence that had been produced regarding Iran backed Houthi forces launching drones at Saudi Arabian facilities. The news outlet stated “In December 2017, the then U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley stood in front of a pile of debris and scrap metal that could have been collected from the White House waste storage facilities and claimed that they were remnants of Iranian missiles that had been launched from Yemen.” “It’s just simply not enough to present so-called evidence with “made in Iran” written on a piece of metal because the American Special Forces in eastern Ukraine can easily make that up.” Not only did the wording change but also what the Iranians wanted in regards to proof of its involvement. Amirabdollahian explained on Press TV that, “We agreed with Ukraine’s foreign minister that if they have any ‘document’s’ proving Russia has been using Iranian drones in Ukraine, Kiev should provide these documents to us.” Documented evidence would be harder to come by that physical evidence which means that the lies and deceit will continue longer. Even if documented evidence was produced it would be quickly discounted by Iran as a Zionist or a United States plot that would be “politically motivated, biased and won’t deliver accurate results, levelling fake accusations against Iran with the intent of damaging Tehran’s international relations.” As claimed by the Tehran Times on the 22 Oct 22.