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Terrorist and Security Report - Americas

2/16/2016

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​United States/Da’esh/World – ISIS is likely to step up 'the pace and lethality' of its attacks in the months ahead as it seeks to intensify its global campaign of violence, warned the U.S. Defence Intelligence Agency director on the 9 Feb 16.  Marine Corps Lieutenant General Vincent Stewart emphasised the dangers of the jihadi group's 'emerging branches' in Mali, Tunisia, Somalia, Bangladesh and Indonesia.  He also said he would not be surprised if ISIS extended its operations from the Sinai Peninsula in order to strike the heart of Egypt.  Stewart said that ISIS's presence in Iraq and Syria was only the start, with the group seemingly looking to expand as part of its global plan.  'Last year, Da’esh (ISIS) remained entrenched on Iraqi and Syrian battlefields and expanded globally to Libya, Sinai, Afghanistan, Nigeria, Algeria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen and the Caucasus,' Stewart said.  'Da’esh is likely to increase the pace and lethality of its transnational attacks because it seeks to unleash violent actions and to provoke a harsh reaction from the West, thereby feeding its distorted narrative' of a Western war against Islam, he said.  Stewart's comments came a day before he and other U.S. intelligence officials are set to deliver an annual worldwide threat assessment to Congress.  The Sunni Muslim militant group seeks not only to escalate conflict with the West, but also with Islam's minority Shiite branch, just as Shiite extremist groups like Lebanon's Hezbollah are stoking tensions with Sunnis, Stewart said.  'These threats are exacerbated by the security challenges of the Middle East, which is now facing one of the most dangerous and unpredictable periods in the last decade,' he said.  ISIS has as many as 25,000 fighters in Syria and Iraq, down from a previous estimate of up to 31,000, according to a U.S. intelligence report revealed by the White House last week.  U.S. officials cited factors such as battlefield casualties and desertions to explain the roughly 20 percent decrease in fighters, and said the report showed a U.S.-led campaign to crush Islamic State was making progress.

The Paris terror attacks in November that killed 130 people were due to intelligence failure, CIA Director John Brennan has said, warning that the Islamic State is planning an attack on the US.  “Paris was a failure of intelligence. All but one of the eight terrorists were French citizens, trained by IS in Syria. They returned, unnoticed, and attacked six locations killing 130 people,” Mr. Brennan said.  There is a lot that IS probably has underway that the US doesn’t have full insight into, he said.  “We knew the system was blinking red. We knew in the days before that IS was trying to carry out something,” he told CBS in an interview on the 15 Feb 16.  “But the individuals involved have been able to take advantage of the newly available means of communication that are walled off, from law enforcement officials,” Mr. Brennan said adding that the IS has been using very sophisticated technologies and communication systems.  “I’m expecting them to try to put in place operatives, the material or whatever else that they need to do or to incite people to carry out these attacks, clearly. So I believe that their attempts are inevitable. I don’t think their successes necessarily are,” he noted saying it was inevitable that IS will try to attack the US.  IS, he observed, is trying to provoke a clash between the West and the Muslim world to gain more adherents.  “Because what they are claiming is that the United States is trying to take over their countries which is the furthest thing from the truth,” he asserted.  Brennan argued that the intelligence security services have stopped numerous attacks and operatives that have been moved from maybe Iraq to Syria or into Europe.  “But the failure in Paris allowed IS to attack with bombs and assault rifles,” said the CIA Director.  Noting that there are reports that IS has access to chemical precursors and munitions that they can use, he said the CIA believes that IS has the ability to manufacture small quantities of chlorine and mustard gas.  “There’s always potential for IS to transport those chemical weapons to the West. This is why it’s so important to cut off various transportation routes and smuggling routes that they have used,” he said.  The CIA chief said the waterboarding method of torture is not being used and would not be used in the future.  “The cyber environment can pose a very, very serious and significant attack vector for our adversaries if they want to take down our infrastructure, if they want to create havoc in transportation systems, if they want to do great damage to our financial networks. There are safeguards being put in place.  But that cyber environment is one that really is the thing that keeps me up at night,” he said.
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